Movies · resolved market
Will "The Night Agent: Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x972bf44e9b0d2f94e90b36dbbb51579973536ce3db6df5caff1ac72e4b08595a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,537
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,058
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,537 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5bf…8763backed Yes | 16c | 9,283$1,446 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,446.03 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7c…7334backed Yes | 7c | 2,238$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d4…4027backed No | 66c | 2,099$1,381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.4 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x401e…6fc9backed No | 67c | 1,109$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.5 | 175 | 40%70 W · 105 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaed…aa93backed No | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +121.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc93e…7195backed Yes | 5c | 980.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +4.2wins | +0.28per pick | 25cpaid | +126.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…15e1backed No | 39c | 931.25$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.45 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | +14.1wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x223d…8ef3backed No | 80c | 752.4$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.4 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd41…3796backed No | 46c | 651$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.54 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +5.6wins | +0.24per pick | 45cpaid | +107.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Yes | 34c | 619.41$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.67 | 56 | 21.4%12 W · 44 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed Yes | 54c | 589$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.06 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4252…4a6ebacked Yes | 62c | 487.67$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 63cpaid | -49.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8697…4165backed No | 64c | 344$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.84 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf907…e7dbbacked Yes | 36c | 344$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 14c | 283.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 211 | 9.5%20 W · 191 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1596…c8dcbacked Yes | 36c | 278.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e35…384fbacked Yes | 54c | 226$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.04 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b49…c6debacked Yes | 55c | 224.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.75 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 9c | 214.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.11 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 13cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed Yes | 67c | 193.5$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.37 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 45cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfe…6108backed No | 46c | 164$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75fb…8ce7backed Yes | 63c | 107.19$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa53d…9710backed No | 72c | 104.85$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.85 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98cc…852fbacked Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 79.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked No | 73c | 68.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 59 | 57.6%34 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b9…0371backed Yes | 63c | 58.73$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 37c | 57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f7b…03e0backed Yes | 24c | 51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc67b…dc73backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 38c | 38.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 484 | 14%68 W · 416 L | -39.3wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 44c | 37.3$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 24cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x76c5…ac15backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d01…649abacked Yes | 65c | 27.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 72c | 26.07$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 71c | 23.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked Yes | 61c | 18.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 79 | 69.6%55 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "The Night Agent: Season 3" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?this page
- Will "Bridgerton: Season 4" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "Love is Blind: Season 10" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "Reality Check: Inside America's Next Top Model" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?No won
- Will "The Lincoln Lawyer: Season 4" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.