MLB · resolved market
Cubs vs. Astros
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4414825e1703420e8720e2ce21e9b047c4eeea4a183f425cb605f522501b3d74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Astrosof Cubs, Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $60,863
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe895…c3dabacked Cubs | 48c | 13,373$6,419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,419.04 | 452 | 48.2%218 W · 234 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Astros | 52c | 11,460$5,959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,500.8 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x727b…d1a2backed Cubs | 41c | 7,948$3,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,289.33 | 188 | 37.8%71 W · 117 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Astros | 60c | 5,984$3,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,382.81 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked Astros | 52c | 5,627$2,926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,701.06 | 245 | 53.5%131 W · 114 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Cubs | 45c | 3,500$1,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,575 | 692 | 49%339 W · 353 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Astros | 52c | 3,287$1,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,588.18 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f19…b0cabacked Cubs | 27c | 2,526$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.86 | 466 | 31.1%145 W · 321 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Cubs | 1c | 2,444$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.82 | 876 | 2.9%25 W · 851 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Cubs | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 436 | 54.8%239 W · 197 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa320…8232backed Cubs | 52c | 1,937$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 284 | 47.5%135 W · 149 L | -20.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Astros | 51c | 1,827$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$893.53 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cbe…12bcbacked Astros | 50c | 1,633$817 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.83 | 1,132 | 48.9%553 W · 579 L | -16.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a5b…e79dbacked Cubs | 46c | 1,200$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe807…8922backed Cubs | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Cubs | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb61f…9958backed Cubs | 6c | 820.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 272 | 13.6%37 W · 235 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcacf…35ffbacked Cubs | 2c | 769.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 505 | 3.8%19 W · 486 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd59…c3a5backed Astros | 53c | 754.72$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.72 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Astros | 48c | 700.62$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.32 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2c…284cbacked Astros | 51c | 670.59$342 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.59 | 284 | 53.9%153 W · 131 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6f…3838backed Astros | 57c | 625.43$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.56 | 405 | 47.4%192 W · 213 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…b3d7backed Cubs | 49c | 458.09$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.47 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff24…76c1backed Cubs | 49c | 448$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.52 | 93 | 32.3%30 W · 63 L | -16.8wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Astros | 48c | 413.42$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.98 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…7d12backed Cubs | 49c | 404.31$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 182 | 47.8%87 W · 95 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8410…c718backed Astros | 51c | 390$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Cubs | 47c | 389.72$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.17 | 215 | 38.6%83 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ad…d11dbacked Cubs | 49c | 372.84$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.83 | 140 | 50.7%71 W · 69 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72cf…69aebacked Cubs | 48c | 330.47$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.13 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Astros | 52c | 252$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.96 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Astros | 59c | 251.47$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.53 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05a4…1e85backed Astros | 67c | 251.35$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.76 | 806 | 80%645 W · 161 L | +173.6wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xcf92…4bfdbacked Astros | 51c | 242$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.58 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88cf…7d31backed Astros | 53c | 235$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.35 | 198 | 49.5%98 W · 100 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Cubs | 48c | 228.85$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.85 | 389 | 49.1%191 W · 198 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe597…077cbacked Cubs | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae30…d0a3backed Cubs | 28c | 206.43$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.23 | 268 | 47.4%127 W · 141 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Cubs | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa264…e26abacked Astros | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | -9.8wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Astros | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Cubs | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 405 | 48.9%198 W · 207 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Astros | 50c | 199.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 311 | 45.7%142 W · 169 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Cubs | 49c | 199.98$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.99 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Cubs | 48c | 197.93$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.82 | 1,360 | 44.3%602 W · 758 L | +45.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…18cebacked Astros | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 313 | 56.2%176 W · 137 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9839…040ebacked Astros | 50c | 160$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 141 | 46.8%66 W · 75 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cubs | 45c | 154.93$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.9 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Cubs | 29c | 144.29$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Cubs | 47c | 138.93$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.76 | 1,097 | 50.1%550 W · 547 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b3c…ffc7backed Cubs | 10c | 125$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 885 | 49.7%440 W · 445 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Cubs | 48c | 119$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.12 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf235…366dbacked Astros | 53c | 108.83$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 1,078 | 46.3%499 W · 579 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72fe…e2cebacked Cubs | 47c | 108$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 519 | 55.3%287 W · 232 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1781…a0ecbacked Astros | 60c | 103$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | -7.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Astros | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Cubs | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f36…4e9cbacked Cubs | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Astros | 74c | 95.78$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.19 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Astros | 51c | 92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.08 | 1,402 | 48.8%684 W · 718 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41ec…0bd8backed Cubs | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xeff1…7e56backed Cubs | 45c | 64.33$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf59b…6ea1backed Astros | 51c | 59.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Astros | 54c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Cubs | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 504 | 47.2%238 W · 266 L | +29.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5874…a9d7backed Cubs | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 249 | 53%132 W · 117 L | +14.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb853…0d33backed Cubs | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 630 | 52.7%332 W · 298 L | +13.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75ec…6b20backed Astros | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -6.5wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x80fc…c14fbacked Cubs | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 162 | 41.4%67 W · 95 L | -7.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Cubs | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,203 | 48.5%584 W · 619 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a10…023fbacked Cubs | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Astros | 53c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 173 | 54.9%95 W · 78 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26c1…1098backed Astros | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7bb…2abcbacked Astros | 51c | 25.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec89…3286backed Cubs | 51c | 23.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 142 | 57%81 W · 61 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bf7…cdb7backed Astros | 57c | 23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.78 | 457 | 49.7%227 W · 230 L | +12.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…8547backed Cubs | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab6…cfecbacked Cubs | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x902d…0066backed Cubs | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -4.9wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.