MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x443b0960402c93748216fe0b757a1a0079d9881b32f382d5c2507f784faf8dc2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,879
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 71c | 2,602$1,852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,851.68 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 45c | 2,000$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 21c | 1,895$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,494.67 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcba5…cd88backed Under | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 662 | 50.2%332 W · 330 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 46c | 1,304$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$704.34 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 40c | 871.97$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$524.37 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Under | 54c | 649$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.46 | 274 | 49.3%135 W · 139 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb2…a656backed Under | 53c | 401.69$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.89 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 62c | 390.63$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.16 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 356.58$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.12 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 46c | 296.7$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.05 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 63c | 286.51$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.01 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 53c | 246.23$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.59 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 53c | 217.77$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.42 | 1,358 | 50.8%690 W · 668 L | +13.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab4…5a40backed Over | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 162 | 51.9%84 W · 78 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 46c | 200$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fd…3e24backed Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 54c | 190$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 1,445 | 50%723 W · 722 L | +26.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 667 | 48.7%325 W · 342 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd6…d7babacked Under | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.6wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 50c | 181.37$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.83 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Under | 23c | 137.67$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 548 | 15.9%87 W · 461 L | -41.1wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 37c | 135.72$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.54 | 4,515 | 48.8%2,205 W · 2,310 L | -46.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b1…e904backed Over | 47c | 107.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.91 | 693 | 51.9%360 W · 333 L | +26.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 58c | 91.75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.84 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 59c | 91.38$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.61 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6707…d4d8backed Under | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 40c | 84.28$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 26c | 82.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.32 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 36c | 70.7$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.36 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Over | 55c | 60$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +18.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 65c | 46.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 46c | 43.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.39 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 47c | 42.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Under | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 308 | 48.1%148 W · 160 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Under | 48c | 36.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Under | 45c | 32.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 45c | 31.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 6,305 | 48.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L | +181.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8263…e0f1backed Under | 54c | 29.73$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 347 | 54.8%190 W · 157 L | +12.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 69c | 28.01$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Over | 59c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ac…427fbacked Over | 65c | 26.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 55c | 20.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc70b…d2f2backed Under | 55c | 20.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 64c | 19.2$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf180…3b6cbacked Over | 67c | 17.92$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5this page
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.