MLB · resolved market
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xad96e67ef4e27f90dd2c7d220e5316709cf4472d8f15ac05a74f157277816290
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,258
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,242
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,258 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde49…fe85backed Over | 62c | 15,000$9,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,700 | 484 | 51%247 W · 237 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 38c | 8,941$3,398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,397.78 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x595d…9ad0backed Under | 44c | 4,545$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 39c | 4,471$1,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,759.25 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Over | 56c | 2,000$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.99 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 57c | 1,349$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 57c | 1,167$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.81 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 43c | 1,142$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.92 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 43c | 679.88$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.51 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 43c | 634.21$273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.71 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 40c | 562.04$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.32 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 50c | 400$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.36 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…341fbacked Under | 43c | 348.84$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 57c | 336.84$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.84 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4946…4004backed Over | 57c | 307.02$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.02 | 128 | 52.3%67 W · 61 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 54c | 304.45$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.25 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 62c | 249.1$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.99 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Over | 57c | 240.35$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.35 | 251 | 49.8%125 W · 126 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 55c | 206.12$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.65 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Over | 57c | 180$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 449 | 49.2%221 W · 228 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Over | 58c | 172.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.84 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 43c | 136.62$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.75 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Over | 77c | 135.16$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Under | 8c | 127.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Under | 43c | 120$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 50c | 110.35$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.88 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Over | 57c | 100$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43 | 208 | 51.9%108 W · 100 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 43c | 88.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 40c | 64.87$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.98 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Over | 57c | 58.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5331…3672backed Under | 44c | 57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 175 | 40.6%71 W · 104 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 43c | 53$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 67c | 43.09$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.22 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 29c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Under | 49c | 33.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 42c | 31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Over | 54c | 21.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Over | 61c | 19.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5this page
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: Kansas City Royals (-3.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Kansas City Royals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Kansas City Royals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 11.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 12.5Under won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 6.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5Over won
- St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.