WNBA · resolved market
Spread: Indiana Fever (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x443f4e8e917e8e04f6c8f55e6e5f5a08b75ad346999f4721b8dedf21702ae420
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Indiana Feverof Indiana Fever, Golden State Valkyries
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- WNBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,724
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,724 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in WNBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in WNBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Indiana Fever | 42c | 1,396$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$806.97 | 1,765 | 51.7%912 W · 853 L | +53.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Golden State Valkyries | 60c | 1,237$741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$740.57 | 1,611 | 50.2%809 W · 802 L | +37.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Indiana Fever | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.83 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Golden State Valkyries | 51c | 868.99$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.49 | 310 | 43.2%134 W · 176 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5966…af5dbacked Golden State Valkyries | 53c | 651.98$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.03 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32f1…c96ebacked Indiana Fever | 47c | 600$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2579…9d48backed Golden State Valkyries | 56c | 594.64$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Indiana Fever | 46c | 506.2$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.7 | 127 | 45.7%58 W · 69 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Indiana Fever | 51c | 457$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.19 | 851 | 58.4%497 W · 354 L | +70.2wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbbf3…aa3abacked Golden State Valkyries | 57c | 439.46$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Golden State Valkyries | 52c | 247.54$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.03 | 227 | 48.5%110 W · 117 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Golden State Valkyries | 49c | 142.08$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.18 | 376 | 50.3%189 W · 187 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Indiana Fever | 46c | 129.99$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.2 | 171 | 43.9%75 W · 96 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Golden State Valkyries | 53c | 123$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.83 | 248 | 52.4%130 W · 118 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Indiana Fever | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 121 | 44.6%54 W · 67 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Indiana Fever | 54c | 95.09$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.74 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba5c…c5edbacked Golden State Valkyries | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Indiana Fever | 44c | 79.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.69 | 167 | 45.5%76 W · 91 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31c5…270abacked Indiana Fever | 54c | 79.72$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Indiana Fever | 45c | 75.05$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.38 | 995 | 48.1%479 W · 516 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Indiana Fever | 44c | 68.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.42 | 188 | 44.1%83 W · 105 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a85…7b44backed Indiana Fever | 46c | 53.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5646…c97ebacked Indiana Fever | 48c | 51.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked Golden State Valkyries | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -6.3wins | -0.37per pick | 43cpaid | -89.2%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Golden State Valkyries | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 153 | 46.4%71 W · 82 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1edb…a60bbacked Golden State Valkyries | 53c | 47.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…0477backed Golden State Valkyries | 48c | 41.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Indiana Fever | 48c | 37.65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 329 | 48.6%160 W · 169 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…b257backed Golden State Valkyries | 55c | 36.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 53cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Golden State Valkyries | 30c | 36.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Indiana Fever | 47c | 32.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 137 | 45.3%62 W · 75 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Golden State Valkyries | 55c | 31.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Indiana Fever | 44c | 31.67$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 893 | 49.4%441 W · 452 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07cd…fbebbacked Golden State Valkyries | 56c | 26.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 133 | 46.6%62 W · 71 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa824…436bbacked Golden State Valkyries | 54c | 21.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa230…f8c7backed Golden State Valkyries | 54c | 21.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f74…58e1backed Golden State Valkyries | 54c | 21.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Indiana Fever | 51c | 20.39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41d8…7233backed Golden State Valkyries | 53c | 20.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa11f…1252backed Indiana Fever | 54c | 19.27$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in WNBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-6.5)this page
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Indiana FeverIndiana Fever won
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 166.5Over won
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 167.5Over won
- Golden State Valkyries vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 168.5Over won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-5.5)Indiana Fever won
- Spread: Indiana Fever (-7.5)Indiana Fever won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.