NFL · resolved market
Spread: Commanders (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x444468b8fa96f902c1ded460e6b26b1a9036831b7c408481e45c1883b174d913
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Commandersof Commanders, Giants
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,305
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,305 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Commanders | 48c | 10,000$4,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,200 | 105 | 66.7%70 W · 35 L | +12.6wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Giants | 54c | 8,742$4,713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,713.21 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…0234backed Commanders | 46c | 8,000$3,680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,320 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +6.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +134.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Commanders | 47c | 6,850$3,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,635.25 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b1…968abacked Giants | 53c | 6,000$3,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,180 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0930…0d60backed Giants | 52c | 6,000$3,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,120 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 58cpaid | -55.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Giants | 54c | 4,069$2,197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,197.26 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Commanders | 46c | 2,633$1,213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,420.27 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Giants | 1c | 2,062$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Giants | 52c | 2,033$1,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.3 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Commanders | 46c | 1,318$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.62 | 143 | 51%73 W · 70 L | +8.4wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Commanders | 47c | 1,064$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.83 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Commanders | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c95…4d15backed Giants | 52c | 961.52$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Giants | 54c | 900$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8c…abbabacked Giants | 52c | 878.85$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Giants | 51c | 860.94$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.08 | 184 | 35.9%66 W · 118 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Commanders | 47c | 619.43$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.37 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8485…c13ebacked Commanders | 47c | 457$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.21 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 44cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked Commanders | 47c | 431.33$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.69 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19d8…1691backed Commanders | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 78 | 33.3%26 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Commanders | 45c | 384.27$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.35 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Giants | 54c | 328$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.12 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…6c83backed Giants | 53c | 240$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.2 | 93 | 58.1%54 W · 39 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae4…3f2ebacked Commanders | 49c | 202.24$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Commanders | 47c | 200$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Giants | 52c | 196.14$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Giants | 54c | 190$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.6 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Giants | 55c | 182$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9470…b8a0backed Giants | 54c | 161.11$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.66 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed Giants | 53c | 132.17$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 164 | 51.2%84 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Commanders | 49c | 105$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.65 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…429cbacked Commanders | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Commanders | 46c | 95$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.3 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf71d…84acbacked Giants | 54c | 77.78$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Giants | 52c | 77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.04 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Giants | 54c | 74.17$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Giants | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 54 | 40.7%22 W · 32 L | -3.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Commanders | 46c | 68$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…f9d6backed Giants | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -10.3wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Commanders | 49c | 41.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe77e…bb3dbacked Giants | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…925fbacked Giants | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Commanders (-6.5)this page
- Giants vs. CommandersCommanders won
- Giants vs. Commanders: O/U 45.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.