Premier League · resolved market
Will Manchester United vs. Aston Villa end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4455f01ece335334ed381fd72fd31eb13a46beeb27f3c7686b76dcddacd79560
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,078
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,078 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 66c | 1,316$872 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.81 | 386 | 45.3%175 W · 211 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Yes | 23c | 1,087$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde97…e43ebacked Yes | 19c | 1,000$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe965…6559backed Yes | 51c | 628.44$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 76c | 602.5$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.58 | 187 | 52.9%99 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed No | 77c | 458.05$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.38 | 214 | 45.8%98 W · 116 L | +9.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…dfaabacked Yes | 22c | 450.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed No | 62c | 372.16$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.03 | 283 | 55.5%157 W · 126 L | +17.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Yes | 38c | 308$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.7 | 168 | 51.2%86 W · 82 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 150 | 25.3%38 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked Yes | 22c | 182.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.19 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked Yes | 22c | 165.78$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.77 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f31…cd6fbacked Yes | 13c | 152.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 24cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76b5…c1cebacked Yes | 22c | 135.96$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Yes | 23c | 130.3$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 22c | 130$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 66c | 105.4$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.87 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 184 | 33.7%62 W · 122 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0c…ad7cbacked Yes | 29c | 90.3$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 62 | 25.8%16 W · 46 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32fb…49c7backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x73b9…ecc4backed Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 76c | 73.87$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 907 | 51.3%465 W · 442 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 54 | 18.5%10 W · 44 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed No | 75c | 42.75$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 369 | 54.5%201 W · 168 L | +50.1wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…0495backed Yes | 44c | 30.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf699…07e1backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 280 | 70%196 W · 84 L | +49.8wins | +0.18per pick | 52cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dc…5460backed Yes | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 67 | 29.9%20 W · 47 L | -7.8wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 77c | 20.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 520 | 60.4%314 W · 206 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb46d…7093backed No | 77c | 17.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester United vs. Aston Villa end in a draw?this page
- Will Aston Villa win on 2025-05-25?No won
- Will Manchester United win on 2025-05-25?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.