TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Royals vs. Guardians

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Royalsof Royals, Guardians
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$83,631
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$86,305

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $83,631 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc0d9…da5ebacked Guardians51c8,823$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,499.621643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Royals49c7,784$3,794 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,989.843949.4%217 W · 222 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Royals50c3,800$1,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,90063152.6%332 W · 299 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2873…ad0abacked Guardians48c3,180$1,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,519.3210041%41 W · 59 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Royals50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50069249%339 W · 353 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Guardians57c2,760$1,571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,570.721,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Royals49c2,716$1,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,385.352,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Royals38c2,402$907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,495.182,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Royals32c2,335$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,580.539,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Royals49c2,143$1,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,091.091,32851.4%682 W · 646 L+25.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xedd7…0356backed Royals50c1,830$915 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9152152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6bc1…4534backed Guardians50c1,680$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8403342.4%14 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-21.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Royals49c1,635$801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$833.831,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bb7…6e92backed Guardians51c1,592$805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8051030%3 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-41.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Guardians50c1,555$778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$777.539041%160 W · 230 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1331…3d82backed Royals76c1,316$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.0214966.4%99 W · 50 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x328e…dc42backed Guardians46c1,214$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.0821847.7%104 W · 114 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a44…d80abacked Guardians48c1,133$544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$543.6219742.6%84 W · 113 L-13.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Royals49c1,116$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$569.381,40248.8%684 W · 718 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebc6…c3e4backed Royals27c974.01$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$707.091100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+264.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x517a…6491backed Guardians52c961.54$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5009354.8%51 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Royals50c905$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452.481,02951.2%527 W · 502 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Guardians52c839.92$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$438.9579740.4%322 W · 475 L-19.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Guardians48c809.9$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$389.614,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Guardians51c784$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.841,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Royals48c696.58$335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.471,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Royals50c680.9$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.455940.7%24 W · 35 L-5.2wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-21.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Royals50c640.54$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$321.5312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b28…66f0backed Royals50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30010451%53 W · 51 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x255e…4979backed Guardians52c576.92$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003650%18 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd428…6368backed Guardians50c570$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28539056.9%222 W · 168 L-0.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Guardians58c512.6$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.3976456%428 W · 336 L+32.0wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Guardians51c500.72$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.0178445.3%355 W · 429 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbffc…1f45backed Guardians49c500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24513247.7%63 W · 69 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77c5…9a0ebacked Royals30c485.94$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$339.2670841.4%293 W · 415 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf102…1348backed Royals50c447$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.631,13746.3%526 W · 611 L+36.1wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d9a…4e25backed Royals50c445$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.515944%70 W · 89 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x55d8…b384backed Guardians51c392.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20057744.7%258 W · 319 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc81…0ababacked Guardians52c384.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20026055%143 W · 117 L+21.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+16.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc7e2…c7fdbacked Royals46c358.71$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.3915033.3%50 W · 100 L-10.8wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-26.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Guardians53c356$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.416,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa408…e305backed Guardians11c350$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.424531.1%14 W · 31 L-5.3wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-42.8%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Guardians49c349$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.011,21252.1%631 W · 581 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fec…fc7bbacked Guardians18c333.33$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601022.9%3 W · 99 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-60%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Royals49c324.46$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.4773149.4%361 W · 370 L+23.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Royals49c300$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1533,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Guardians72c300$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.568656.4%387 W · 299 L+38.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3745…cf3bbacked Royals50c278.08$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.0438047.6%181 W · 199 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca38…460bbacked Guardians62c268$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.1634051.2%174 W · 166 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x386d…9bb6backed Guardians16c260$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425232.7%17 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Royals64c232.15$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.21,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Guardians51c206.02$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.088,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa717…8919backed Royals49c204.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.5540548.9%198 W · 207 L+13.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42e8…e4e6backed Guardians52c203.85$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1062839.3%11 W · 17 L-4.2wins-0.15per pick54cpaid-26.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Royals36c200$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12945732.2%147 W · 310 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Royals50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1002,03352.4%1,066 W · 967 L-35.5wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Royals49c200$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10268769.6%478 W · 209 L+60.4wins+0.09per pick61cpaid+12.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Royals50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1001,25052.2%653 W · 597 L-5.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Guardians52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002,26753.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L-12.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8868…ec0dbacked Guardians52c192.31$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007443.2%32 W · 42 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-15.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xefa9…7a30backed Guardians52c192$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8424346.1%112 W · 131 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4472…a648backed Royals50c190$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9599951%509 W · 490 L-24.3wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x61c1…0513backed Guardians59c169.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017355.5%96 W · 77 L-8.9wins-0.05per pick61cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Royals49c161.79$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.5149450%247 W · 247 L+9.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd82a…5fcfbacked Guardians50c150$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7535245.5%160 W · 192 L-13.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e9c…95a1backed Guardians52c144.23$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7540144.1%177 W · 224 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd269…8055backed Guardians52c137.31$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.470946.1%327 W · 382 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4591…d19ebacked Guardians52c134.62$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7014146.1%65 W · 76 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Guardians51c121.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.222,04553.8%1,100 W · 945 L+32.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb16…96b5backed Guardians50c117.04$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.528366.3%55 W · 28 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc5b…f102backed Guardians52c107.21$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.751,29956.7%737 W · 562 L-0.5wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa431…c13dbacked Guardians51c105.88$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542864.3%18 W · 10 L+3.3wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+23.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Guardians71c105$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.566,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe6d7…b646backed Guardians50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5018236.3%66 W · 116 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3df4…57dfbacked Guardians50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5031347.9%150 W · 163 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x72c6…f769backed Royals51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.04650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16a1…24f8backed Guardians57c97.65$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.252536%9 W · 16 L-4.2wins-0.17per pick53cpaid-35.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x702a…abb6backed Guardians52c96.15$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502454.2%13 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16ea…6df7backed Guardians61c93.54$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.7513138.2%50 W · 81 L-9.4wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-36.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf7ea…f31cbacked Royals50c90$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$452737%10 W · 17 L-2.4wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-21.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x04fd…b24dbacked Guardians50c80$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.28per pick45cpaid-63.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xba49…a4a1backed Royals26c76.92$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.923336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-16.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x980d…985fbacked Guardians53c75.47$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402245.5%10 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20b7…8a76backed Guardians51c68.63$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$352965.5%19 W · 10 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick54cpaid+23.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5308…3221backed Royals34c66$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7840352.4%211 W · 192 L+15.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2ec5…b23bbacked Guardians39c64.86$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252733.3%9 W · 18 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-35.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ba9…bfaebacked Royals48c62.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.523060%138 W · 92 L-1.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x041c…88c5backed Royals50c60$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3018750.3%94 W · 93 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1126…4e82backed Guardians57c60$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.460052.2%313 W · 287 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a07…cff6backed Guardians51c54.9$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281931.6%6 W · 13 L-3.8wins-0.20per pick52cpaid-31.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x17e0…1e88backed Guardians55c54.45$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9554441.2%224 W · 320 L-22.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Guardians50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252,20350.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L+29.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ac1…5f0fbacked Guardians50c45$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.534257.6%197 W · 145 L+25.6wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+15.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf002…047fbacked Royals63c43.67$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.0216851.8%87 W · 81 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1347…5503backed Guardians51c43.14$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223053.3%16 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5685…e3e8backed Guardians51c41.18$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212552%13 W · 12 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd57e…95f3backed Guardians74c40.54$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307365.8%48 W · 25 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-6.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ef…7be6backed Guardians49c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.67153.5%38 W · 33 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a66…5b12backed Royals50c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2014450.7%73 W · 71 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a64…ca89backed Guardians50c40$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.