Tennis · resolved market

Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 men's singles tournament at the Miami Open?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44677881635644342e326febf3b69d7fef61fea40ddf3b059c05307cbb660365

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 27, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $32,252
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $28,729

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,252 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x99e0…5052backed Yes	5c	10,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	15	46.7%7 W · 8 L	+2.6wins	+0.17per pick	30cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Yes	6c	1,795$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.76	82	26.8%22 W · 60 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10eb…8b98backed Yes	8c	1,500$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.5	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-18.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe44b…6e0abacked Yes	8c	1,363$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.41	220	39.1%86 W · 134 L	-5.7wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x23ed…aebcbacked Yes	1c	1,262$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.41	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes	7c	664.73$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.25	37	13.5%5 W · 32 L	-3.8wins	-0.10per pick	24cpaid	-56.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes	3c	635.78$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.71	372	30.4%113 W · 259 L	-12.0wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes	13c	575.11$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.86	360	47.2%170 W · 190 L	+9.6wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe25c…ae63backed Yes	8c	500$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.99	527	50.3%265 W · 262 L	-6.9wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes	7c	411.85$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.15	33	24.2%8 W · 25 L	-4.2wins	-0.13per pick	37cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x48df…e4c9backed Yes	6c	348.91$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.89	177	46.9%83 W · 94 L	+8.2wins	+0.05per pick	42cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes	7c	281.84$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.85	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-2.3wins	-0.11per pick	21cpaid	-71%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe267…5295backed Yes	7c	241.07$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-36%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1fc8…f45bbacked Yes	11c	222.83$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.79	283	22.3%63 W · 220 L	-13.3wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	7c	188.23$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.68	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	32cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc5ab…8dbcbacked Yes	8c	157.57$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes	8c	148.81$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.54	1,870	16%299 W · 1,571 L	-314.3wins	-0.17per pick	33cpaid	-65.6%equal weight	32-0.17 edge/pick
0xa179…60cebacked Yes	15c	99.33$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-2.0wins	-0.11per pick	39cpaid	-50.5%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Yes	12c	85$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.03	757	48.6%368 W · 389 L	+16.5wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 men's singles tournament at the Miami Open?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event