Tennis · resolved market

Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 men's singles tournament at the Miami Open?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3cbbafbe875df28b1e0d9d67b7eadf4f0353a875ce3d8a5794cd003d6c369a8

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Mar 22, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $23,389

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,389 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tennis
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xa0ce…0a8ebacked Yes	36c	9,244$3,348 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,347.67	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe394…289cbacked No	64c	8,319$5,289 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,029.7	284	51.1%145 W · 139 L	+8.1wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed Yes	25c	5,433$1,344 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,344.43	227	23.8%54 W · 173 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdc3…c0eabacked Yes	25c	2,574$641 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$641.42	133	63.9%85 W · 48 L	+5.1wins	+0.04per pick	60cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa01f…16b9backed Yes	57c	1,406$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.8wins	-0.35per pick	35cpaid	-100%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes	39c	942.89$367 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$366.69	372	30.4%113 W · 259 L	-12.0wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed No	76c	705.48$537 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$168.8	82	26.8%22 W · 60 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked Yes	33c	545.39$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.99	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	+92%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09f8…e156backed No	60c	385.56$232 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$153.39	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-17%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd950…ad1bbacked Yes	35c	375.99$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.8	65	26.2%17 W · 48 L	-5.8wins	-0.09per pick	35cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0781…c4ffbacked No	57c	346$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$148.78	33	24.2%8 W · 25 L	-4.2wins	-0.13per pick	37cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	16c	257$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.12	25	16%4 W · 21 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea12…993bbacked Yes	28c	239.92$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.18	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb15c…c161backed Yes	42c	239.26$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	103	40.8%42 W · 61 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6944…3902backed Yes	41c	200$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82	86	62.8%54 W · 32 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	63cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4451…fcbebacked No	63c	199.87$126 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74.07	36	52.8%19 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x168a…da29backed No	60c	181.33$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$73.01	88	54.5%48 W · 40 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81c5…6355backed Yes	16c	177.65$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.1	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.17per pick	33cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39a5…87f2backed No	59c	140$83 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.4	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a2e…d3cabacked Yes	16c	116.29$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.61	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes	30c	107.75$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.07	52	26.9%14 W · 38 L	-3.2wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes	28c	100$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	39c	84.37$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.9	336	50.9%171 W · 165 L	-7.3wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes	21c	83.61$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.19	37	13.5%5 W · 32 L	-3.8wins	-0.10per pick	24cpaid	-56.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf435…7e64backed No	62c	76.1$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.61	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.22per pick	56cpaid	-46.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	25c	72$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.64	2,331	7.9%183 W · 2,148 L	-56.9wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No	54c	71.32$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.07	19	63.2%12 W · 7 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	58cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	35c	51.6$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.06	1,245	33.9%422 W · 823 L	-5.6wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-3.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd0bf…b759backed No	58c	50$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21	12	41.7%5 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd9e…49b3backed No	74c	50$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.26per pick	74cpaid	+35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30e8…38b0backed No	74c	50$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.3wins	+0.26per pick	74cpaid	+35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes	41c	48.81$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.01	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-2.1wins	-0.16per pick	32cpaid	-71.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No	75c	45.24$34 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.27	10	60%6 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	62cpaid	-16.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x14b7…a035backed Yes	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	235	54.5%128 W · 107 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes	40c	39.56$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.88	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.7wins	+0.18per pick	57cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x17c0…5195backed Yes	41c	26.22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.77	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.41per pick	41cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c5a…022dbacked No	59c	23.32$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.56	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	58cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c15…45a0backed No	57c	22.08$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.4	71	36.6%26 W · 45 L	-5.4wins	-0.08per pick	44cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3865…fcbebacked No	67c	17.84$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.89	197	54.8%108 W · 89 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 20 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 men's singles tournament at the Miami Open?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event