Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4478e0b259c8a2022ed62af9618c3038c7b85573e808b9ccee3f85cfbc84b103
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,989
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,496
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,989 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 43c | 449.89$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.99 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 21c | 345.69$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.63 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 6c | 289.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked No | 13c | 261.47$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 718 | 23.4%168 W · 550 L | -26.6wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 9c | 239.55$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 60c | 232.51$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.4 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 41c | 229.46$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.24 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3609…3a0bbacked Yes | 51c | 203.52$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.02 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 38c | 181.44$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.18 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 44c | 168.19$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.11 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 62c | 154.94$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.88 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 61c | 150$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0d06backed No | 40c | 148.78$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 41 | 61%25 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 53c | 139.94$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.17 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 54c | 134.76$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.04 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 52c | 132.71$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.96 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 44c | 114.12$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.56 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 61c | 113.06$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.93 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 49c | 111.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.28 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 56c | 107.12$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5af3…1534backed Yes | 63c | 99.99$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | +4.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 42c | 99.98$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b35…bb20backed Yes | 63c | 95.61$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 18c | 95.55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…7434backed No | 50c | 92.94$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.53 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9248…6955backed Yes | 53c | 92.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.45 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 20c | 87.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 58c | 80$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 29c | 78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 48c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3175…9bb2backed Yes | 55c | 65.47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 166 | 42.8%71 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 31c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 24c | 62.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 59c | 59.79$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 46c | 58.44$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…42efbacked No | 37c | 57.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | -13.9wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 37c | 52.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1987…1d94backed Yes | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 36c | 41.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked No | 44c | 40.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 50c | 38.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 68c | 38.08$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked Yes | 65c | 34.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…0195backed Yes | 56c | 32.93$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 176 | 44.3%78 W · 98 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…814abacked Yes | 61c | 32.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x091c…81fdbacked Yes | 56c | 30.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 49c | 29.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 58c | 27.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 50c | 26.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 44c | 26.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 40c | 26.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…a3a5backed Yes | 57c | 26.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 45c | 26.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 49c | 22.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf56…2be0backed Yes | 55c | 21.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.68 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 49c | 21.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbf…f003backed Yes | 54c | 20.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 306 | 52.6%161 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1de2…7273backed Yes | 50c | 20.04$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 77c | 18.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 58c | 17.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.78 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.