Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x447d9ead6de695b88ce5842f4f644931bee53c303ae30e2914464329a0b807b6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,589
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,947
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,589 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 869.89$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.15 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 72c | 353.86$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.62 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 53c | 286.88$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.29 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 15c | 262.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.37 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 19c | 259.18$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.14 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 8c | 243.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.84 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 5c | 242.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 14c | 219.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.18 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 19c | 182.32$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.92 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed No | 80c | 162.94$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.54 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 159.96$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.37 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 78c | 136$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.45 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…f22cbacked No | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x537e…a602backed Yes | 35c | 125.16$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.59 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 9c | 116.11$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.66 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked Yes | 58c | 115$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.5 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed Yes | 33c | 111.53$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.49 | 136 | 30.1%41 W · 95 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 19c | 102.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23db…cf1cbacked Yes | 11c | 93.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.75 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 25c | 82$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.3 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 80c | 80$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked No | 44c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 15c | 69.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c59…0c2cbacked No | 65c | 62.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.65 | 97 | 59.8%58 W · 39 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6780…41ccbacked Yes | 46c | 51.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.59 | 270 | 51.1%138 W · 132 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 80c | 38.73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.96 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 36c | 38.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 176 | 49.4%87 W · 89 L | -9.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 79c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed No | 78c | 34.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 71c | 29.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.58 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 66c | 26.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b5…8c02backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 74c | 19.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 78c | 19.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde79…e442backed No | 62c | 18.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 75c | 17.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 80c | 13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x562e…8529backed No | 77c | 12.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.