Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44e7595bc9d2d633feb0f90513d25ff6517ab3f3145e7dbd94d323f00860d357
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,584
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,584 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 29c | 572.44$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.87 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 30c | 408$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.97 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…fc9bbacked Yes | 4c | 375$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 32c | 249.55$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 16c | 229.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.98 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 71c | 210$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.9 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 16c | 199.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked Yes | 26c | 176.97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 68c | 170.85$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.53 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 24c | 151.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 143$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1461…b97ebacked Yes | 20c | 120.26$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 280 | 35.4%99 W · 181 L | -69.3wins | -0.25per pick | 60cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 25-0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 35c | 120.07$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 67c | 113.27$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.46 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…7307backed No | 71c | 113$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.2 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 74c | 110$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 108.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.97 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 68c | 104.11$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.04 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 102$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 67c | 100.83$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.27 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17e…7a0cbacked Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 189 | 45.5%86 W · 103 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 72c | 91.75$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.64 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 30c | 90.9$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 90.5$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.1 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 24c | 87.45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 66c | 83.35$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 76c | 80$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed Yes | 18c | 71.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x65f9…4425backed No | 77c | 63.97$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 59.21$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 36c | 58.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf336…a233backed Yes | 32c | 57.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…485fbacked Yes | 35c | 57.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 23c | 56.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.18 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed No | 65c | 51.96$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 42c | 47.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebe…a64dbacked Yes | 25c | 47.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 103 | 25.2%26 W · 77 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 40c | 47.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.78 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 29c | 46.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 65c | 45.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 66c | 44.18$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.13 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 70c | 41.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed No | 62c | 40.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.39 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 65c | 40.25$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.26 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf616…507cbacked Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd85d…3700backed Yes | 32c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked No | 67c | 35$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed Yes | 38c | 33.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 136 | 30.1%41 W · 95 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.24 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 65c | 32.41$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.34 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ba1bbacked No | 67c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 26.68$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.65 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked No | 67c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 73c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 350 | 63.1%221 W · 129 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…3017backed No | 69c | 20.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 152 | 58.6%89 W · 63 L | -8.5wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 57c | 19.77$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 19.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7610…e332backed No | 71c | 16.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 71c | 16.23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed No | 76c | 14.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.42 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 1?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.