Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2d92e1858559d2786603525f8af2415e276bfc4de3386e73bb977e263707b8eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,901
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,368
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,901 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 56c | 450.12$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 44c | 370.51$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 45c | 327.5$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.8 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 30c | 297.03$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.56 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 54c | 195.95$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.9 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 54c | 185.81$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 33c | 184.78$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.17 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 36c | 183.38$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.45 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 48c | 174.67$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.82 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 36c | 152.01$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.2 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 143$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.66 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 56c | 129.59$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.23 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11c8…6f8fbacked Yes | 76c | 124.42$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 43c | 113.1$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.82 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 41c | 110$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 45c | 107.86$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.52 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 57c | 105.66$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.19 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 58c | 103.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 55c | 98.57$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.43 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 51c | 98.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 45c | 97.63$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 57c | 95$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 46c | 88$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.31 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f38…a0edbacked No | 46c | 87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.24 | 149 | 43.6%65 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 49c | 80$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.8 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 46c | 78.19$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.97 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 33c | 71.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.83 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 70.44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.31 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 46c | 69.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 47c | 60.28$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9d4…a3d5backed Yes | 78c | 59.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.79 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 59c | 56.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.62 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1362…2081backed Yes | 47c | 54.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5927…ba9abacked No | 47c | 53.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.45 | 287 | 62.4%179 W · 108 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 47c | 51.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.32 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 53c | 50.59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 69c | 50.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.6 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec34…b109backed Yes | 58c | 46.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.74 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed No | 50c | 44.81$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.48 | 136 | 30.1%41 W · 95 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 44.39$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e3…5897backed No | 44c | 43$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.11 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | -20.8wins | -0.25per pick | 56cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 43c | 39.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.37 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x537e…a602backed Yes | 65c | 36.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.63 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 55c | 35.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 55c | 35.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6cd…eaecbacked Yes | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 146 | 60.3%88 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…6ff8backed No | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 193 | 45.6%88 W · 105 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 49c | 34.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 45c | 31.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 51c | 31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf616…507cbacked Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b29…3c20backed Yes | 68c | 28.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78b6…bc74backed Yes | 53c | 28.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 51c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x914d…dd11backed Yes | 51c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf27…f35fbacked Yes | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 153 | 47.1%72 W · 81 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0f…c1e6backed No | 46c | 26.09$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.09 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeda…b697backed Yes | 69c | 26$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 88 | 72.7%64 W · 24 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0b5…e373backed Yes | 50c | 25.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…7307backed Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 53c | 24.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…fc9bbacked Yes | 67c | 22.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 51c | 20.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 79c | 19.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 1?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.