Tennis · resolved market
ITF Milano: Manuel Mazza vs Marcello Serafini
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x449c87aaf30763b8f96d23e56e95e0e493736a202c3c93c5cdd2262e1ad82edf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marcello Serafiniof Manuel Mazza, Marcello Serafini
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,791
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd5f…c343backed Marcello Serafini | 22c | 1,875$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,462.5 | 54 | 14.8%8 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf01f…e8fbbacked Manuel Mazza | 78c | 1,875$1,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,462.5 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Marcello Serafini | 29c | 1,444$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.9 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Manuel Mazza | 74c | 1,357$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.54 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272d…bc2fbacked Manuel Mazza | 40c | 840$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.5 | 366 | 57.7%211 W · 155 L | +7.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ece…3b9bbacked Manuel Mazza | 78c | 825$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.5 | 159 | 66%105 W · 54 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb309…06d4backed Marcello Serafini | 22c | 825$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.5 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Marcello Serafini | 21c | 601.82$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.86 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ec…23bdbacked Manuel Mazza | 78c | 600$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468 | 167 | 69.5%116 W · 51 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4741…6af1backed Marcello Serafini | 22c | 600$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468 | 69 | 8.7%6 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7df6…558bbacked Marcello Serafini | 22c | 525$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.25 | 48 | 10.4%5 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50dc…b61abacked Manuel Mazza | 78c | 525$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.25 | 275 | 30.2%83 W · 192 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Manuel Mazza | 42c | 354.76$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149 | 1,076 | 60.4%650 W · 426 L | +24.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Manuel Mazza | 71c | 337.75$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.42 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Manuel Mazza | 32c | 328.46$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.61 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Marcello Serafini | 30c | 285.9$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.6 | 1,234 | 46.3%571 W · 663 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Marcello Serafini | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.39 | 923 | 55.8%515 W · 408 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0e…bd73backed Manuel Mazza | 79c | 211$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.69 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Marcello Serafini | 33c | 209$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.6 | 727 | 55.6%404 W · 323 L | +27.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d4f…ab40backed Manuel Mazza | 79c | 193.67$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 41 | 70.7%29 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 72cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Manuel Mazza | 41c | 190.36$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8a…a117backed Marcello Serafini | 31c | 180.26$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.79 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Marcello Serafini | 27c | 173.6$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.1 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Manuel Mazza | 42c | 142.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ea…42e8backed Manuel Mazza | 79c | 142.56$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.62 | 898 | 59.7%536 W · 362 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Marcello Serafini | 27c | 134.8$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.4 | 1,142 | 47.3%540 W · 602 L | +65.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked Marcello Serafini | 21c | 133.33$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.33 | 490 | 56.9%279 W · 211 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Manuel Mazza | 66c | 129.81$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.67 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Marcello Serafini | 33c | 120.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.8 | 753 | 50.5%380 W · 373 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Manuel Mazza | 44c | 106$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 1,008 | 43.8%442 W · 566 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Manuel Mazza | 51c | 98.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 1,228 | 23.1%284 W · 944 L | -164.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -47%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xcd96…11a3backed Manuel Mazza | 77c | 69.36$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.22 | 2,274 | 58%1,318 W · 956 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Marcello Serafini | 30c | 44.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 652 | 59.4%387 W · 265 L | +31.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Marcello Serafini | 74c | 35.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 896 | 63.7%571 W · 325 L | +63.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Marcello Serafini | 51c | 31.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x103f…86dbbacked Marcello Serafini | 60c | 25.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 163 | 62%101 W · 62 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x326d…3584backed Manuel Mazza | 77c | 21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.24 | 184 | 33.2%61 W · 123 L | -40.4wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 29-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Marcello Serafini | 56c | 20.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.