Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44e364d7344b0e4160f3c3e4a4e39695cde882650158b4a06fc6be17ec44a29a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,566
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,566 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc43f…6c05backed Yes | 1c | 1,391$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked No | 59c | 749.45$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.45 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 437.4$337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.09 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 22c | 430.93$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…890cbacked Yes | 7c | 419.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.17 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82fd…c9a8backed Yes | 29c | 410$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.9 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb90b…ca12backed Yes | 57c | 290.3$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 12c | 284.49$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.12 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 19c | 250$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.32 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 22c | 236.84$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1b…ff31backed Yes | 12c | 231.56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…d8f0backed Yes | 76c | 230.15$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.55 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 50c | 197.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.94 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 14c | 182.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.13 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 180.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes | 12c | 180.59$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.67 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 172.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18ae…314cbacked Yes | 9c | 155.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 1,211 | 29.8%361 W · 850 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 64c | 152.95$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.41 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 33c | 152.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.74 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 40c | 149.15$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.96 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 14c | 143.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.52 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 20c | 138.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6469…d07cbacked Yes | 76c | 132.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 9c | 131.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…0490backed Yes | 10c | 130.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204c…b31dbacked Yes | 72c | 127.21$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.05 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 12c | 124.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 30c | 122.21$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 30c | 122$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.6 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 28c | 120.83$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.03 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 117.62$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.68 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 62c | 112.53$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50e…45c5backed No | 71c | 101.01$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 80c | 95.63$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.42 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 37c | 93.47$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 27c | 91.84$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba1…2769backed Yes | 76c | 86.92$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.19 | 106 | 40.6%43 W · 63 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 31c | 79.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.39 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed Yes | 55c | 79.35$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 19c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…3fa9backed Yes | 38c | 72$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.36 | 313 | 19.2%60 W · 253 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x048e…0087backed Yes | 61c | 69.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.32 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c8d…84afbacked Yes | 60c | 67.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 62cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 66c | 65.9$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.41 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked No | 47c | 64.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.28 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 39c | 62.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 21c | 62.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 54c | 61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.92 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ff6…e4fbbacked No | 78c | 60.43$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 653 | 53.4%349 W · 304 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc944…1686backed Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 345 | 33%114 W · 231 L | +20.6wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 42c | 58.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2cff…468bbacked Yes | 44c | 56.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 162 | 63%102 W · 60 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 63c | 54.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c6…e320backed Yes | 65c | 45.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 43.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 59c | 34.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df1…3661backed Yes | 80c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…d4dabacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 53 | 81.1%43 W · 10 L | +8.5wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x639d…3a02backed Yes | 44c | 28.07$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 66c | 27.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 64c | 26.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.85 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 73c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe9…56d9backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 55 | 70.9%39 W · 16 L | +4.7wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36b6…0400backed Yes | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 67c | 18.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f0…186cbacked Yes | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.9wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.