Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9744c0a758a03cfd9bfb5be90e668cd3aa189b9776a58ddb2db393e059f28d99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,803
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,898
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,803 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 136 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 437.4$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.61 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 53c | 364.1$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.98 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Yes | 44c | 335.19$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.24 | 381 | 38.6%147 W · 234 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 50c | 322.49$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.49 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 267.31$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 39c | 250.44$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.04 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 54c | 233$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.05 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 67c | 221.35$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.02 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 56c | 209.06$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.79 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 48c | 198.48$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.93 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 72c | 175.35$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.4 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 52c | 171.78$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.93 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 60c | 163.71$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.28 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 157.98$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb90b…ca12backed Yes | 60c | 154.1$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.1 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 48c | 153.99$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.76 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 53c | 150$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.58 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3494…d0f6backed Yes | 50c | 147.73$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.09 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +82.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c00…0c2fbacked Yes | 40c | 146.74$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 58 | 32.8%19 W · 39 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 29c | 144.22$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 140.1$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.87 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 47c | 138.8$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.72 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ef…4caabacked Yes | 53c | 129.26$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.26 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 46c | 125.01$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.55 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 63c | 122.58$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.03 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed No | 60c | 113.43$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 54c | 112.52$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 43c | 110.01$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 54c | 109.24$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.82 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 52c | 102.19$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.54 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f59…9e40backed Yes | 25c | 101.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.98 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x668b…8900backed Yes | 47c | 100.4$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 51c | 98.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.44 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2108…2e40backed Yes | 42c | 97.65$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.29 | 59 | 39%23 W · 36 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 55c | 95.63$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 27c | 94.86$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.21 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 53c | 94.16$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.16 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 23c | 93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.47 | 410 | 46.8%192 W · 218 L | +57.4wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x22d9…ee63backed Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 41c | 90.16$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 49c | 90.15$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.91 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 41c | 85.36$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.96 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac24…576ebacked Yes | 40c | 85.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.79 | 233 | 34.3%80 W · 153 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 67c | 80$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.39 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed Yes | 69c | 79.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45e3…b5dabacked Yes | 42c | 79.55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.87 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 46c | 79.39$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.16 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…fc14backed No | 47c | 75.83$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1b…3e49backed Yes | 49c | 74.93$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.85 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 43c | 70.61$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.07 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 52c | 70.59$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.43 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe466…7db5backed Yes | 49c | 70.09$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.99 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +5.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc06d…6732backed Yes | 38c | 67.87$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b6…0400backed Yes | 41c | 64.53$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.03 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 58c | 62.02$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 47c | 59.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 49c | 59.67$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.25 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 45c | 58.13$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.16 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 43c | 57.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 54c | 55.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.15 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 46c | 55.62$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.71 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e0…7b25backed Yes | 44c | 54.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 46c | 53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…dc4bbacked No | 57c | 51.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c6…e320backed Yes | 58c | 51.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73cd…bdafbacked Yes | 52c | 50.51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 55c | 50.31$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e48…9143backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3a…08d7backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 27c | 49.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.47 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed Yes | 48c | 49.85$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 48c | 49.77$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204c…b31dbacked Yes | 55c | 48.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.93 | 59 | 32.2%19 W · 40 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 51c | 48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.46 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ab…ea2fbacked Yes | 40c | 47.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 176 | 37.5%66 W · 110 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b0…1402backed Yes | 52c | 46.45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 163 | 39.9%65 W · 98 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…e862backed No | 48c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 66c | 41.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 59c | 41.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 38c | 40.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…f8c6backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 50c | 39.69$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.69 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6086…a5f9backed No | 49c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 310 | 50.3%156 W · 154 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 50c | 36.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.29 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8609…401ebacked Yes | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 51c | 34.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.6 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.