South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. Recoleta FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44ed4e4aad9fbfebd060fa802b3eb21cef494f62e0633f5bf9cd2df6d85afcfb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,649
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,091
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,649 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x180a…54a6backed Yes | 20c | 1,950$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | -3.7wins | -0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -81.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 21c | 624.23$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.02 | 422 | 50.2%212 W · 210 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 79c | 603.31$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.5 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 68c | 584.97$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186.3 | 1,443 | 45.9%662 W · 781 L | -22.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed No | 80c | 498.48$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.7 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 75c | 405.33$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.33 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x191f…f09ebacked Yes | 17c | 370.36$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.54 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 70c | 310.88$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.82 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e5…b254backed Yes | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 22c | 299.84$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.07 | 196 | 30.6%60 W · 136 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 79c | 291.18$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.59 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed No | 79c | 288.06$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.49 | 335 | 60.9%204 W · 131 L | +18.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 79c | 288.06$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.49 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8e…0404backed Yes | 24c | 239.03$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf6…0e3bbacked Yes | 34c | 228.43$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.56 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 25c | 168.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 26c | 141.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b0…cc4bbacked Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 92 | 56.5%52 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ba…3630backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c71…61b5backed Yes | 35c | 90$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…eac6backed No | 67c | 89.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd147…ecbdbacked Yes | 20c | 81.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 186 | 31.2%58 W · 128 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked No | 77c | 80$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 153 | 59.5%91 W · 62 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked No | 79c | 65.97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 129 | 58.1%75 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb82f…9e1cbacked Yes | 22c | 63.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 85 | 69.4%59 W · 26 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Yes | 19c | 54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 251 | 47.8%120 W · 131 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed No | 80c | 50.79$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 506 | 43.9%222 W · 284 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 350 | 46.3%162 W · 188 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 79c | 40.29$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed No | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed No | 72c | 34.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.72 | 258 | 66.3%171 W · 87 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd764…ae83backed Yes | 34c | 34.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked No | 77c | 33.48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 216 | 57.9%125 W · 91 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…c208backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 388 | 61.3%238 W · 150 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c66…e371backed No | 80c | 20.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x089c…4dc4backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 429 | 46.2%198 W · 231 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed No | 80c | 19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 74c | 15.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.12 | 636 | 57.5%366 W · 270 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…8cebbacked No | 80c | 14.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.84 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked No | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. Recoleta FC end in a draw?this page
- Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-05-26?No won
- Will Recoleta FC win on 2026-05-26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.