South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-05-26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x026538e9dd783ee026fd5c9d3c8087059c1c24f44782c6eace9795508db3df91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,402
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,252
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,402 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet's whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed No | 32c | 4,840$1,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,291.17 | 87 | 43.7%38 W · 49 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 75c | 3,247$2,446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.36 | 8,175 | 48.7%3,980 W · 4,195 L | +27.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…e1cabacked Yes | 13c | 2,817$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.12 | 71 | 25.4%18 W · 53 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Yes | 65c | 1,487$973 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$972.8 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 68c | 1,144$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.91 | 3,461 | 51.4%1,779 W · 1,682 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 68c | 1,136$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$770.7 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Yes | 69c | 1,094$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$752.65 | 422 | 50.2%212 W · 210 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 68c | 1,043$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.44 | 1,713 | 52%891 W · 822 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 52c | 1,013$526 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.38 | 3,874 | 38.4%1,486 W · 2,388 L | -34.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 69c | 883.72$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$608.7 | 2,063 | 51.3%1,059 W · 1,004 L | +44.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18c2…529abacked No | 28c | 837.5$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +50.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 61c | 821.41$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.32 | 5,873 | 45.3%2,663 W · 3,210 L | +96.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…f36dbacked Yes | 68c | 777.4$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.63 | 332 | 66.3%220 W · 112 L | +24.8wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa374…9709backed No | 30c | 700$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8b…cb2cbacked Yes | 19c | 526.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 31c | 415.99$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.21 | 1,726 | 50.5%872 W · 854 L | -7.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f8e…0404backed Yes | 25c | 317.84$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 31c | 312.99$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.42 | 2,346 | 51.4%1,207 W · 1,139 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d93…b34dbacked Yes | 68c | 300$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 84 | 52.4%44 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +17%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e05…2ebcbacked No | 31c | 300$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 31c | 289$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.41 | 196 | 30.6%60 W · 136 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x222b…1a8dbacked No | 73c | 279.08$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.22 | 216 | 40.3%87 W · 129 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 19c | 265.02$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 1,362 | 44.9%611 W · 751 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd73…4da1backed Yes | 7c | 258.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 153 | 26.1%40 W · 113 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f8…0fd7backed No | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 79cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe11…18cfbacked No | 31c | 232.33$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.31 | 56 | 51.8%29 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c3e…3c4cbacked No | 40c | 209.35$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.1 | 224 | 65.2%146 W · 78 L | +23.1wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed No | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 227 | 45.4%103 W · 124 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked No | 30c | 173.34$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.13 | 129 | 58.1%75 W · 54 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 67c | 167.1$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.96 | 1,447 | 51.8%750 W · 697 L | +23.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 30c | 162.24$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.18 | 1,362 | 49.8%678 W · 684 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5370…84adbacked Yes | 73c | 162.05$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.76 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…2f7cbacked Yes | 72c | 158.99$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01d7…5fd2backed No | 78c | 128.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 74 | 71.6%53 W · 21 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 44c | 121.46$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.02 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1edb…a60bbacked No | 29c | 114.55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.33 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b35…1dcebacked No | 28c | 112.32$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.32 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +54.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x111a…2c97backed No | 32c | 106.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.25 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 37c | 103$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.84 | 1,063 | 49%521 W · 542 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa299…ac77backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Yes | 68c | 95$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.75 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe22f…49b1backed No | 28c | 92.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.34 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yes | 23c | 89.56$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 67c | 87.5$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.98 | 1,471 | 56.8%835 W · 636 L | +56.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed No | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fd…e954backed No | 31c | 74.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.19 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 53c | 72.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.28 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…a3f4backed Yes | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe8b…5e62backed No | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Yes | 68c | 66.33$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 335 | 60.9%204 W · 131 L | +18.7wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 33c | 65.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.77 | 418 | 54.5%228 W · 190 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b9…2592backed No | 33c | 61.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.93 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 54c | 61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.76 | 943 | 46.1%435 W · 508 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Yes | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 173 | 55.5%96 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 78c | 58.11$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 1,551 | 45.9%712 W · 839 L | -16.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe569…e759backed Yes | 35c | 57.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 78 | 41%32 W · 46 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Yes | 68c | 56.56$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 819 | 56.2%460 W · 359 L | +23.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe337…4ad6backed No | 65c | 55.19$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 198 | 55.6%110 W · 88 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a0c…10e6backed Yes | 70c | 53.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.51 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…8ac9backed No | 29c | 52.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 135 | 45.2%61 W · 74 L | +9.7wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed No | 63c | 52.05$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 267 | 45.3%121 W · 146 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6328…1bf3backed Yes | 71c | 51.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.37 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb96…bdf0backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -4.0wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4b6a…ea49backed Yes | 71c | 49.85$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 48c | 48.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 144 | 50%72 W · 72 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51b5…20fcbacked Yes | 70c | 46.43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd840…1ec6backed Yes | 69c | 45$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed No | 62c | 43.34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.62 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2965…0dedbacked Yes | 68c | 43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a5…b591backed No | 33c | 42.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.36 | 16 | 87.5%14 W · 2 L | +4.5wins | +0.28per pick | 59cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa923…6704backed No | 33c | 37.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 290 | 53.8%156 W · 134 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe702…d88cbacked No | 34c | 31.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Yes | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 388 | 61.3%238 W · 150 L | +14.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Yes | 69c | 28.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…b2a6backed Yes | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ec…da98backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 61cpaid | -31%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b2…5f43backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Yes | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked No | 55c | 18.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 293 | 62.5%183 W · 110 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23bc…5487backed Yes | 67c | 17.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 132 | 47.7%63 W · 69 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x492f…bc51backed Yes | 70c | 17.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +24%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Yes | 68c | 15.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 286 | 65%186 W · 100 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro win on 2026-05-26?this page
- Will CA San Lorenzo de Almagro vs. Recoleta FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Recoleta FC win on 2026-05-26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.