Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x451794ffc5be0a406d380c0bb44fbb4a0be77502d69a7a0582e94d47921af2be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $251,165
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $250,933
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $251,165 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7558…2d70backed Yes | 4c | 25,695$977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$976.59 | 110 | 5.5%6 W · 104 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 0c | 20,408$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.49 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf31a…bfbabacked Yes | 6c | 15,076$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.2 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 10cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 3c | 7,821$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.03 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fdd…2f82backed Yes | 16c | 6,925$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…02babacked Yes | 4c | 5,191$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc903…b175backed Yes | 16c | 5,000$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5642…d4cdbacked Yes | 4c | 4,449$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 4cpaid | +405.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd143…83ecbacked Yes | 13c | 4,202$548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$548 | 102 | 21.6%22 W · 80 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed Yes | 3c | 3,072$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.9 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b59…58e6backed Yes | 3c | 2,874$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 100 | 1%1 W · 99 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -96.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e24…1b02backed Yes | 4c | 2,841$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a8…f385backed Yes | 5c | 2,488$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 4c | 2,447$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.08 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 13c | 1,825$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.26 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f89…9363backed Yes | 3c | 1,765$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c91…9d8ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,737$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,696$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.58 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9540…c128backed Yes | 3c | 1,664$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,321$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c0…5930backed Yes | 12c | 1,177$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,126$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 137 | 3.6%5 W · 132 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…927bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,077$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 167 | 2.4%4 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…e2c6backed Yes | 8c | 1,045$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.93 | 93 | 3.2%3 W · 90 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 13c | 894.09$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.04 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 2c | 881.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.88 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 3c | 823.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce68…f6b8backed Yes | 18c | 680.51$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.49 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed Yes | 18c | 680$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.4 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…64aebacked Yes | 12c | 668.39$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.21 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes | 9c | 613.49$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.37 | 142 | 2.1%3 W · 139 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 607.3$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.13 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaf8…b485backed Yes | 7c | 594.12$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…d56ebacked Yes | 3c | 551.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 56 | 17.9%10 W · 46 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 479.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 149 | 9.4%14 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75cd…b4a0backed Yes | 3c | 469$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a01…6cffbacked Yes | 22c | 454.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19ce…24b0backed Yes | 3c | 391$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 7c | 318.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.13 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f93…79a9backed Yes | 4c | 302$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf14e…86efbacked Yes | 5c | 245.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…1ad9backed Yes | 14c | 230.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -84.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8db…ddfcbacked Yes | 27c | 222.22$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 7c | 151.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x979d…87dcbacked Yes | 12c | 142$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x172d…a2c2backed Yes | 12c | 133.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.97 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x034e…f79dbacked Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 12cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x744f…5f3dbacked Yes | 10c | 100.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…e1fdbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 21cpaid | +120%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x89a6…02cfbacked Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1dd…0724backed Yes | 18c | 70.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP dip to $1.00 in March?this page
- Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.80 in March?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.20 in March?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.60 in March?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $1.80 in March?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.00 in March?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.20 in March?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.40 in March?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.60 in March?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.80 in March?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in March?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.20 in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.