Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP reach $1.80 in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5782dfa46093580c50d1fcd2ecf20422201d8b2a7456eebf73459dba56071c5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $156,465
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $115,243
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,465 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb392…fc73backed Yes | 18c | 12,048$2,113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,113.44 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92bb…1afbbacked Yes | 0c | 12,008$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x739a…552cbacked Yes | 0c | 11,369$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 52 | 0%0 W · 52 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a55…d660backed Yes | 1c | 5,270$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe441…c9b7backed Yes | 3c | 3,471$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 3,406$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.35 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Yes | 3c | 2,494$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.3 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 2c | 1,885$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.54 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed Yes | 4c | 1,571$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.48 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c62…149fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,544$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6174…5920backed Yes | 1c | 1,502$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed Yes | 2c | 1,409$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.43 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba01…76ebbacked Yes | 2c | 1,228$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.53 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 5c | 1,154$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.28 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…927bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,092$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.78 | 167 | 2.4%4 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 8c | 1,042$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.2 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…394fbacked Yes | 16c | 1,015$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 9c | 1,015$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.29 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Yes | 6c | 1,008$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 985.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 1c | 984.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 137 | 3.6%5 W · 132 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 6c | 860.84$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.81 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1908…ecd3backed Yes | 18c | 647.12$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.95 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x770a…7d17backed Yes | 3c | 600$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6a…611abacked Yes | 9c | 576$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 2c | 567.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d32…3aa2backed Yes | 11c | 567.43$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x500f…f46fbacked Yes | 28c | 566.14$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.65 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…0b43backed No | 75c | 562.98$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.67 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7b…4c93backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed Yes | 23c | 527$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.33 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb80…5f42backed Yes | 2c | 490.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 415.86$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.72 | 149 | 9.4%14 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6087…61e8backed Yes | 16c | 350$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08d0…1f1fbacked No | 79c | 299.95$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe37…5e08backed Yes | 11c | 256.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 20c | 245.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…08c5backed Yes | 19c | 235.48$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbef7…0b4dbacked Yes | 16c | 229.52$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.86 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb176…19cabacked No | 79c | 205.76$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.46 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8db…ddfcbacked Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes | 22c | 195.41$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 80c | 191$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.2 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3284…c689backed Yes | 22c | 183.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.66 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 21c | 183.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7558…2d70backed Yes | 15c | 158.93$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 110 | 5.5%6 W · 104 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | +37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…b9b6backed Yes | 29c | 148.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe046…1ea4backed Yes | 27c | 145$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1e…1f2fbacked Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8c…9e5dbacked Yes | 13c | 110$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa429…368abacked No | 76c | 106.45$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…e1fdbacked Yes | 19c | 106.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.22per pick | 21cpaid | +120%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14c9…2afcbacked Yes | 16c | 105.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67d1…4618backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5f…1d83backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec8a…94b3backed Yes | 24c | 84.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6019…89adbacked Yes | 17c | 73.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4571…5f26backed Yes | 31c | 64.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Yes | 25c | 50.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e1…3b95backed No | 67c | 50.14$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +34%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b6…af5bbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba69…4629backed Yes | 29c | 39.66$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 17cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1505…a5e8backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…e843backed No | 79c | 22.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…cbd5backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP reach $1.80 in March?this page
- Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.80 in March?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.00 in March?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.20 in March?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.60 in March?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $2.00 in March?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.20 in March?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.40 in March?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.60 in March?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.80 in March?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in March?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.20 in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.