Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fef77eae2ab47d2d738be610064f53b1bbe15c57aca49a7d327137094f63f01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $261,760
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $211,639
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $261,760 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3c5a…0a4fbacked Yes | 1c | 52,489$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.68 | 475 | 4.6%22 W · 453 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 2cpaid | +144.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fdd…2f82backed Yes | 6c | 23,565$1,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470.86 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf31a…bfbabacked Yes | 3c | 18,775$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$617.07 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +4.3wins | +0.17per pick | 10cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 12,109$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.88 | 292 | 2.1%6 W · 286 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 8,061$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.89 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed Yes | 1c | 4,704$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.04 | 416 | 3.1%13 W · 403 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1087…013bbacked Yes | 5c | 4,077$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.06 | 36 | 13.9%5 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f89…9363backed Yes | 3c | 3,772$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…b9b6backed Yes | 3c | 3,102$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.44 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…e2c6backed Yes | 2c | 3,086$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.66 | 93 | 3.2%3 W · 90 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5849…a99ebacked Yes | 0c | 3,029$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…02babacked Yes | 3c | 2,771$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.52 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 2,575$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.79 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b59…58e6backed Yes | 2c | 2,312$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 100 | 1%1 W · 99 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -96.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…acb6backed Yes | 1c | 1,933$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 179 | 2.2%4 W · 175 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,798$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 137 | 3.6%5 W · 132 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe76a…b639backed Yes | 2c | 1,727$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e6…6af4backed Yes | 3c | 1,657$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f5…fd66backed Yes | 4c | 1,604$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3085…7568backed Yes | 2c | 1,603$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 258 | 1.2%3 W · 255 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -84%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 4c | 1,518$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.03 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 3c | 1,481$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.27 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c6…927bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,446$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 167 | 2.4%4 W · 163 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf14e…86efbacked Yes | 1c | 1,357$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed Yes | 3c | 1,300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 268 | 3.4%9 W · 259 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c6b4backed Yes | 3c | 1,285$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 44 | 13.6%6 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25af…bcafbacked Yes | 3c | 1,271$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.36 | 399 | 8.5%34 W · 365 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13b6…c633backed Yes | 1c | 1,262$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 66 | 0%0 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…64aebacked Yes | 5c | 1,200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.62 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeda…4acbbacked Yes | 5c | 1,200$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.6 | 142 | 2.1%3 W · 139 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed Yes | 1c | 1,038$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f1…1c00backed Yes | 5c | 1,034$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 78 | 6.4%5 W · 73 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd66a…d5a6backed Yes | 5c | 660.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91b3…958dbacked Yes | 3c | 646.15$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…3469backed Yes | 5c | 600$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 86 | 1.2%1 W · 85 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbc…b858backed Yes | 4c | 500$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a01…6cffbacked Yes | 6c | 473.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 4c | 395.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 5c | 371.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 149 | 9.4%14 W · 135 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdae3…cf78backed Yes | 4c | 283.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 5c | 239.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 52 | 7.7%4 W · 48 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -74%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c4…a051backed Yes | 7c | 205.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 30 | 6.7%2 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -76.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP dip to $0.80 in March?this page
- Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.00 in March?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.20 in March?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.60 in March?Yes won
- Will XRP reach $1.80 in March?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.00 in March?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.20 in March?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.40 in March?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.60 in March?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.80 in March?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in March?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.20 in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.