Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will XRP reach $1.60 in March?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2e121c41535783f4b9942daf868c84c0c88b1c471a4380f141edef0e9cbdecc2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,539
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $53,539 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6916…2fd4backed Yes | 52c | 5,866$3,072 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,793.86 | 638 | 35.4%226 W · 412 L | +18.1wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca0c…b9b6backed No | 4c | 5,305$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.55 | 82 | 35.4%29 W · 53 L | +8.1wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | +3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb392…fc73backed Yes | 47c | 5,000$2,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,668.34 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83e8…7b89backed No | 49c | 3,127$1,535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,534.81 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef10…0b43backed Yes | 51c | 1,591$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$787.27 | 217 | 26.7%58 W · 159 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 56c | 1,544$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$857.2 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa82a…9055backed Yes | 49c | 1,317$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.23per pick | 60cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8dda…6ec7backed Yes | 39c | 1,315$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.29 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 7c | 933$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.63 | 241 | 7.1%17 W · 224 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x578f…f112backed No | 57c | 900$513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 33c | 699.41$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.53 | 315 | 23.8%75 W · 240 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0258…13bfbacked No | 59c | 599.9$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.94 | 181 | 62.4%113 W · 68 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18f4…c58fbacked Yes | 55c | 571.44$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.06 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc371…1e28backed No | 57c | 546.99$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.07 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.23per pick | 47cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f82…463bbacked Yes | 55c | 436.39$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.39 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe652…d114backed No | 60c | 430.8$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.48 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed No | 44c | 415.2$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.51 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 37c | 361$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.62 | 62 | 11.3%7 W · 55 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2707…0afabacked Yes | 44c | 310$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.6 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…7423backed Yes | 57c | 309.94$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.01 | 348 | 48.6%169 W · 179 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 48c | 306.07$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.33 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 50c | 259.65$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.78 | 165 | 37.6%62 W · 103 L | -21.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 137 | 3.6%5 W · 132 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 678 | 5.9%40 W · 638 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93e…cbd5backed Yes | 47c | 199$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.47 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4552…0333backed No | 45c | 179.61$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.94 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2734…f3aebacked No | 62c | 162.56$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd282…a206backed Yes | 43c | 142.79$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 38c | 140.66$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87 | 1,844 | 4.4%81 W · 1,763 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfde…4006backed No | 47c | 132.51$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.89 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8c…7ae5backed Yes | 65c | 127.71$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.48 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4c5…e5d1backed Yes | 46c | 127$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a81…b7e1backed Yes | 42c | 105$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.1 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcda1…d9adbacked No | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +4.5wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…394fbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b5f…1d83backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa429…368abacked No | 44c | 99.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 25 | 76%19 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb70…3eeebacked No | 56c | 90.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d75…b263backed Yes | 45c | 89.76$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.76 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 46c | 88.16$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1505…a5e8backed No | 63c | 70$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78d2…7a2bbacked Yes | 44c | 69.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.12 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…9e76backed No | 48c | 62.49$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…82a0backed Yes | 42c | 59.94$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +139.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 37c | 57.86$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.44 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -5.3wins | -0.25per pick | 49cpaid | -53%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4916…f56fbacked No | 55c | 56.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.23 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f4…9ed0backed No | 61c | 55.32$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e1…3b95backed Yes | 38c | 50.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.3 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +34%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf523…3f69backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 36cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked No | 57c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1e…721abacked Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdce3…6998backed No | 29c | 49.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a24…2862backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d54…86d1backed No | 44c | 45.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed Yes | 40c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45bc…1f69backed Yes | 45c | 40.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x740d…5cbebacked No | 61c | 39.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…13bbbacked Yes | 37c | 35.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe67f…eb3cbacked No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a38…360bbacked Yes | 35c | 31.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 116 | 5.2%6 W · 110 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xec8a…94b3backed Yes | 55c | 30.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e58…dba7backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe2…cf78backed Yes | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1d…59b0backed Yes | 48c | 28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 41c | 27.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.19 | 83 | 27.7%23 W · 60 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96de…2c06backed Yes | 50c | 25.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.67 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3798…804bbacked No | 62c | 24.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf041…b0eabacked Yes | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will XRP reach $1.60 in March?this page
- Will XRP dip to $0.20 in March?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.40 in March?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March?No won
- Will XRP dip to $0.80 in March?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.00 in March?No won
- Will XRP dip to $1.20 in March?No won
- Will XRP reach $1.80 in March?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.00 in March?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.20 in March?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.40 in March?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.60 in March?No won
- Will XRP reach $2.80 in March?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.00 in March?No won
- Will XRP reach $3.20 in March?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.