TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$739
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$739

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $739 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5331…3672backed Yes47c349.28$164 inWon+$185.1217540.6%71 W · 104 L-8.4wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5b1…e904backed No53c300$159 inLost-$15969351.9%360 W · 333 L+26.3wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0249…5b4bbacked Yes46c211.23$97 inWon+$114.0625249.2%124 W · 128 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4fd2…564ebacked No54c98.09$53 inLost-$52.97837.5%3 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick60cpaid-38.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x54d0…8e20backed No62c80.65$50 inLost-$5032157%183 W · 138 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb1…0073backed No54c55.56$30 inLost-$305939%23 W · 36 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid+67.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6932…6878backed No53c53.54$28 inLost-$28.3726845.9%123 W · 145 L+0.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes38c40.65$15 inWon+$25.28,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed Yes62c40$25 inWon+$15.213858.7%81 W · 57 L+8.1wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+5.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e66…bbd2backed No54c22.41$12 inLost-$12.14746.8%22 W · 25 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.