MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe46d42bef2bc25f59ffb2c9336d43e60a8b5aa8854e4706254688c5f5958a83c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Rangersof San Diego Padres, Texas Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,013
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,013 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Diego Padres | 40c | 2,161$864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$863.61 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Texas Rangers | 65c | 1,957$1,270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.37 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Texas Rangers | 60c | 1,057$636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.89 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked San Diego Padres | 40c | 217$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.8 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed San Diego Padres | 39c | 198$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.89 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed San Diego Padres | 33c | 147.6$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.14 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked San Diego Padres | 35c | 137.24$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked San Diego Padres | 33c | 126.32$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.14 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed San Diego Padres | 42c | 112.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked San Diego Padres | 41c | 108.22$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked San Diego Padres | 38c | 99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.62 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Texas Rangers | 62c | 99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.62 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Texas Rangers | 70c | 68.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Texas Rangers | 64c | 51.62$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Texas Rangers | 53c | 38.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.28 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Texas Rangers | 58c | 31.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.05 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f04…2392backed Texas Rangers | 62c | 28.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Texas Rangers | 71c | 26.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed San Diego Padres | 46c | 25.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae02…7ed0backed San Diego Padres | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.9wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x67bc…3503backed Texas Rangers | 58c | 22.22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ab…7d30backed Texas Rangers | 62c | 21.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.27 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Texas Rangers | 60c | 17.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2176…bc30backed Texas Rangers | 64c | 15.98$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad6…eed6backed Texas Rangers | 64c | 15.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.7 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e94…776bbacked Texas Rangers | 72c | 14.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 184 | 44.6%82 W · 102 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Texas RangersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.