MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29caf89b7c2f3190bf150259d9bb326cd8ab010d0ca94cec968918d3c2e11eeb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,743
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,776
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,743 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Under | 55c | 11,000$6,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,050 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 45c | 5,000$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,750 | 447 | 49.2%220 W · 227 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 45c | 3,707$1,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,038.9 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 3,000$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,640 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 46c | 1,938$891 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.52 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 55c | 909.09$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 383 | 53.8%206 W · 177 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e6…d471backed Under | 55c | 902.76$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.52 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Under | 54c | 815.93$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.6 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 44c | 707.55$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.23 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 45c | 558.04$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.14 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 48c | 456.66$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.52 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 52c | 374.85$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$180.5 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed Under | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba4…6de0backed Under | 54c | 306.06$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.45 | 209 | 45%94 W · 115 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd38…99d4backed Under | 55c | 299.97$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.99 | 267 | 59.2%158 W · 109 L | +17.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Under | 55c | 190$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.5 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 55c | 185$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.75 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x294b…22d2backed Under | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 63c | 154.48$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.33 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 46c | 143.49$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.48 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 59c | 127.48$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.24 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Under | 31c | 96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.32 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 35c | 93.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 45c | 87.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 52c | 75.04$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 46c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Over | 50c | 66$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 313 | 43.5%136 W · 177 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 26c | 58.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Under | 56c | 41.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 2,021 | 39.5%798 W · 1,223 L | -25.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd56d…4928backed Over | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…2f44backed Over | 60c | 33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…63ebbacked Under | 56c | 30.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.7 | 1,205 | 58.8%708 W · 497 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 40c | 28.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Over | 57c | 27.23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.71 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under | 54c | 25.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad81…d891backed Under | 55c | 24.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 57c | 21.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73bd…b576backed Under | 55c | 20.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 275 | 57.1%157 W · 118 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Texas RangersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.