MLB · resolved market
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x22dfca072d52e2851933b2142070ad1a2939dfd9c23a17ebf6c7885b53fe4f0a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Rangersof Texas Rangers, San Diego Padres
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Texas Rangers | 45c | 3,243$1,462 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,780.77 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres | 55c | 3,006$1,641 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,640.76 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Texas Rangers | 49c | 1,242$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.3 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Texas Rangers | 41c | 648.84$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.29 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked San Diego Padres | 59c | 628.32$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.71 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb64f…c3a9backed San Diego Padres | 37c | 400$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 162 | 53.1%86 W · 76 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked San Diego Padres | 74c | 378.97$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.84 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed San Diego Padres | 59c | 363.64$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.55 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a50…e934backed San Diego Padres | 72c | 277.96$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 67 | 68.7%46 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked San Diego Padres | 34c | 241.05$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.2 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 225.04$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.68 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Texas Rangers | 40c | 186.04$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.62 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Texas Rangers | 33c | 172.76$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.94 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bfa…8b61backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 147.7$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 183 | 56.8%104 W · 79 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked San Diego Padres | 62c | 114.23$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.94 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Texas Rangers | 41c | 111$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.49 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 94.5$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.78 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Texas Rangers | 41c | 84.76$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.01 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Texas Rangers | 41c | 78$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.02 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Texas Rangers | 53c | 75.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.09 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 62$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.2 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked San Diego Padres | 53c | 61.44$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed San Diego Padres | 40c | 61.34$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 439 | 54.7%240 W · 199 L | +30.6wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Texas Rangers | 33c | 51.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.55 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Texas Rangers | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Texas Rangers | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa2…9c82backed Texas Rangers | 41c | 49.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Texas Rangers | 25c | 42.77$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed San Diego Padres | 66c | 40$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 39.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Texas Rangers | 44c | 38.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.32 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Texas Rangers | 45c | 37.5$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.63 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed San Diego Padres | 61c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8048…5c85backed San Diego Padres | 62c | 33.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b1…428cbacked San Diego Padres | 62c | 30.87$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f04…2392backed Texas Rangers | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Texas Rangers | 43c | 28.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfb…f1b7backed Texas Rangers | 47c | 27.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 319 | 63%201 W · 118 L | +27.5wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 25.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Texas Rangers | 41c | 24.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.51 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 16.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 10.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 4.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Over won
- San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-2.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-2.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-4.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Texas RangersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.