Tennis · resolved market
Cobolli vs. Fery: Match O/U 38.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x456988453db7e7621fcdccec804f16981aa80eb191fb26e42ac5846ef69a9bf0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,877
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,133
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,877 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Over | 48c | 841$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.68 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12c4…ff8cbacked Under | 53c | 590$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c5…2909backed Over | 47c | 426$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.72 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -8.6wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe459…737dbacked Under | 52c | 400$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1809…3e9ebacked Over | 49c | 307.1$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.48 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f4…dd7cbacked Under | 51c | 305$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.45 | 106 | 56.6%60 W · 46 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…4b87backed Over | 50c | 287.16$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.58 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…a1c5backed Under | 50c | 240$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1,566 | 40%627 W · 939 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Over | 45c | 234.6$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.57 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1d…2fb6backed Under | 51c | 231.4$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.39 | 1,556 | 42.4%660 W · 896 L | +20.6wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under | 48c | 136.37$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.35 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Under | 51c | 99.95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.97 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8583…3f3cbacked Over | 52c | 92.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 59 | 42.4%25 W · 34 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Under | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.3 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x085a…58a8backed Over | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x715d…a4babacked Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 340 | 47.6%162 W · 178 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdda…938abacked Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Under | 52c | 39.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.58 | 482 | 45.6%220 W · 262 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x522f…1164backed Over | 47c | 38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 304 | 36.8%112 W · 192 L | -19.6wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Under | 47c | 33.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f12…eeb9backed Over | 47c | 31.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 291 | 47.8%139 W · 152 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Over | 51c | 31.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 572 | 49.5%283 W · 289 L | -32.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed Over | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,240 | 41.2%511 W · 729 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cobolli vs. Fery: Match O/U 38.5this page
- Cobolli vs. Fery: Match O/U 36.5Under won
- Cobolli vs. Fery: Match O/U 40.5Under won
- Cobolli vs. Fery: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Flavio Cobolli vs. Arthur Fery: Total Sets O/U 3.5Under 3.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Cobolli vs FeryFery won
- Set 2 Winner: Cobolli vs FeryFery won
- Set 3 Winner: Cobolli vs FeryFery won
- Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Fery (+1.5)Fery won
- Set Handicap: Cobolli (-2.5) vs Fery (+2.5)Fery won
- Wimbledon ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Arthur FeryArthur Fery won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.