TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will SV 07 Elversberg win on 2025-12-14?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$252,949
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$313,195

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $252,949 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes46c160,000$73,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86,199.9911445.6%52 W · 62 L+0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked No38c40,000$15,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,2005052%26 W · 24 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc16b…8404backed No38c20,001$7,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,600.381154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked No68c18,204$12,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,326.041566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.8wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+33.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed No65c13,131$8,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,544.929455.3%52 W · 42 L+5.6wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No54c9,816$5,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,277.413,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed No38c3,150$1,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,19756547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80cf…427dbacked No38c3,000$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,14010445.2%47 W · 57 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes8c2,060$165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,894.962,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Yes60c1,628$977 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.374963.3%31 W · 18 L+5.7wins+0.12per pick52cpaid+25.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0caf…abfebacked Yes62c960.48$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.481656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe930…b44dbacked Yes48c838.42$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.983537.1%13 W · 22 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-20.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x908a…ad16backed No43c762.73$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.8551136.8%188 W · 323 L-28.0wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-24.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Yes57c618$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.591,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa7b7…0adbbacked Yes62c502$311 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.766154.1%33 W · 28 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+20.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed No61c422.78$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.9919544.6%87 W · 108 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-16.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Yes61c376.15$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.0976234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Yes49c332.16$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.046532.3%21 W · 44 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid+7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes35c285.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.713145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x78e9…d49cbacked No73c265.6$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.52250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+94.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No26c228.55$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.5916542.4%70 W · 95 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2382…4628backed Yes55c199.99$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901656.3%9 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+32.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f40…600dbacked No38c170.89$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.941136.4%4 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick35cpaid-34.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07ec…ba9fbacked Yes62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.291060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x102f…9b6ebacked No38c148$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick60cpaid-38.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb545…6e0abacked Yes41c145.43$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.433930.8%12 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-17.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb891…969bbacked No36c134.4$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.3813142%55 W · 76 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4cf1…7fc8backed Yes64c130$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.8666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked No36c130$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.88251.2%42 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdedc…8bcabacked Yes61c126.77$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.44250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-18%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x309d…3a8abacked Yes63c117$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.291442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-30.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xba36…52d0backed No37c117$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.291030%3 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-13.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8993…222dbacked Yes51c100$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495259.6%31 W · 21 L+4.7wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7f41…5cb3backed No37c94$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.78366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+9.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf02d…16cabacked Yes54c92.86$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.868258.5%48 W · 34 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Yes59c84.48$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.5956951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00fe…eff7backed No37c79$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.232653.8%14 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc049…48abbacked Yes42c71.43$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.436142.6%26 W · 35 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xca6f…e727backed Yes46c70$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.81741.2%7 W · 10 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x497f…da80backed No46c63.72$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.311450%7 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+16.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed No38c62.91$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9116850%84 W · 84 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x320f…b4a3backed No37c62$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.94425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick47cpaid-58.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed No38c61.88$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.318250%41 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7563…1fb3backed No37c60$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2540%2 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick59cpaid-47%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa024…4929backed No37c60$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a45…512abacked Yes64c59$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.244100%4 W · 0 L+1.8wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+83.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5abb…5a2fbacked Yes45c57.78$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x873a…2066backed No53c54.41$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.6713332.3%43 W · 90 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-37%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bdf…9652backed No40c52$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.813354.5%18 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9784…e452backed Yes42c50$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick42cpaid+34.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a47…cfbbbacked Yes62c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe071…d24cbacked Yes50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa46…1559backed Yes63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid+10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17e0…80aebacked Yes62c49.29$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.66250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-19.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x004e…90f8backed Yes29c47.97$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.973023.3%7 W · 23 L-2.2wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab0f…bde4backed Yes44c45.45$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.45450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+46.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No39c44$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.16267.7%2 W · 24 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xec25…dec6backed Yes64c42.19$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.191963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9af9…89bcbacked Yes63c41$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.17580%4 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+48.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6fa4…b6a4backed Yes63c41$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.17475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+24.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb531…b230backed Yes52c38.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.461560%9 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+28.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfacf…e97abacked No37c37$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.69633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.23per pick57cpaid-48.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x98ae…2bfebacked Yes63c37$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.693100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+65.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb82d…5d1ebacked No37c36$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.32955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+14.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked No49c35$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1578248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde22…292abacked Yes57c31.58$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.58850%4 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-26.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes61c30$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.738151.4%196 W · 185 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x85cc…4895backed Yes62c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.41877.8%14 W · 4 L+4.4wins+0.24per pick54cpaid+44.2%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf21a…0751backed Yes63c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.1560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcf5…840ebacked Yes63c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.12100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd67a…304cbacked No37c29$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.73666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+31.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf683…f2dfbacked No37c28$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.36250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f57…6d41backed Yes61c27$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.53666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+17.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51ce…43fabacked Yes56c26.79$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.796526.2%17 W · 48 L-0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid-12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84c6…f8afbacked Yes63c26$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.62683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.27per pick57cpaid+44.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x95b9…3762backed No40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa27…dbdcbacked Yes63c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.25742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick59cpaid-41.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f6c…ac71backed Yes61c24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.36862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+42.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb717…a67fbacked Yes63c24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.88366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…87a4backed Yes63c24$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0272…7deabacked Yes44c23.86$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.36450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e3e…7fccbacked Yes63c23.71$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.711346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67de…1d9bbacked Yes63c23$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.512100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick68cpaid+48.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6f40…6dc6backed Yes47c22.81$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.111190.9%10 W · 1 L+3.4wins+0.31per pick60cpaid+57.3%equal weight61+0.09 edge/pick
0xbe91…4462backed Yes63c21$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.772100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick69cpaid+46.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2664…53f8backed Yes64c18.75$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.751266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb75…bc16backed Yes63c18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.661100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dcf…4028backed Yes63c18$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.663100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+62.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb665…95a8backed Yes63c17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe026…0404backed Yes62c16.45$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.255547.3%26 W · 29 L-5.9wins-0.11per pick58cpaid-22.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2614…1000backed Yes63c16$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.922100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick54cpaid+93%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6882…6f08backed Yes64c15.63$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.633464.7%22 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick68cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.