Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x459bceea081b1339baa135ea73a9895ab4ab1b3a129224908d1f196f6fb9bf47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,006
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,149
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,006 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 53c | 1,787$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$846.91 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed No | 48c | 971.49$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.9 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 37c | 641.35$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.13 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 48c | 631.94$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.96 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 43c | 494$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.71 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x839e…f4d3backed Yes | 47c | 445.1$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe1f…dbdabacked Yes | 46c | 401.89$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.41 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7966…b251backed Yes | 53c | 400$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$186 | 143 | 59.4%85 W · 58 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 52c | 374.83$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.73 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 48c | 306$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.25 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 51c | 267.07$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.48 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed Yes | 43c | 210.13$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.21 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 45c | 160$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.4 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 49c | 156.36$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.49 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 50c | 146.22$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.42 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 60c | 145$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 35c | 140.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.77 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 74c | 140.27$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.53 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 54c | 140.2$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.19 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 49c | 132$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.68 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 41c | 127.46$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.84 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 42c | 125.69$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.79 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed Yes | 50c | 99.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.91 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed No | 47c | 96.2$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 54c | 88.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 49c | 74.16$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 69.82$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…2721backed No | 49c | 66.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 203 | 58.1%118 W · 85 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 32c | 65.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.54 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 44c | 65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 53c | 65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3904…539bbacked No | 48c | 61.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 427 | 62.8%268 W · 159 L | +16.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 56c | 60.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.75 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad5c…62b5backed Yes | 38c | 58.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 55c | 58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 52c | 57.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 19c | 55.91$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 48c | 55.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b81…1ae7backed Yes | 52c | 54.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 55cpaid | +58.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32fb…fae7backed Yes | 62c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 58c | 49.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.76 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 46c | 45.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 47c | 43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked Yes | 32c | 41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.78 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93f7…c133backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 185 | 55.7%103 W · 82 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2efd…d295backed Yes | 47c | 39.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 53c | 39.27$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012f…400dbacked No | 38c | 36.79$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 348 | 31%108 W · 240 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29ae…c79fbacked Yes | 59c | 33.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -10.0wins | -0.17per pick | 63cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 39c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 57c | 31.66$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 56c | 31.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…c1d0backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +7.9wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba5…c168backed No | 72c | 29.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 49c | 29.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 54c | 26.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3df…463dbacked No | 44c | 26.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 94 | 56.4%53 W · 41 L | +7.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked No | 49c | 26.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b7…f43cbacked No | 54c | 26.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.25 | 308 | 34.4%106 W · 202 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 63c | 25.59$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 50c | 25.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ce…9040backed No | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…0c74backed No | 55c | 23.31$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 77°F or below on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 78-79°F on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 84-85°F on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 86-87°F on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.