Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x459e12234f4c48101884ba78f4af7d23a25337498b48e3a05e2ab040e44d05ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,893
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd2fc…5bd4backed Yes | 53c | 606.42$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.42 | 386 | 33.4%129 W · 257 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 6c | 486.22$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeba0…4586backed No | 52c | 389.18$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.38 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked No | 45c | 337.85$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.13 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 49c | 320$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.2 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 46c | 294.78$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.38 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e6c…6025backed Yes | 48c | 271.69$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.69 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 67c | 160.71$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.54 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 18c | 157.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.07 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 28c | 150.68$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 44c | 138$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 41c | 116.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c1f…f53abacked No | 10c | 111.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -4.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 48c | 93.37$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.43 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 55c | 91.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.33 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 44c | 87$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.45 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 31c | 81.91$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 78.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 30c | 78.24$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.67 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 37c | 76.15$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…724cbacked No | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 31c | 59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 38c | 58.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 45c | 55.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.39 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 23c | 51.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 46c | 43.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…780abacked Yes | 70c | 34.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 62c | 31.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8502…89b6backed No | 47c | 30.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 56c | 30.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf662…8bb7backed No | 49c | 25.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed No | 57c | 25.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 47c | 24.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 62c | 24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 54c | 21.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.57 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x020c…f6c9backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.18per pick | 56cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3614…2397backed Yes | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…144dbacked No | 68c | 15.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | -19.6wins | -0.33per pick | 59cpaid | -61%equal weight | 24-0.23 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on August 13?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on August 13?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on August 13?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on August 13?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.