Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45cae6cde9f74a4d1e9b4be61eb0b0abd95472df3b4750f900eb71a42277c79e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,564
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,157
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,564 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 26c | 717.19$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$528.67 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 76c | 582.86$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.58 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 499.23$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.79 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 24c | 240.22$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.42 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 212.44$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.11 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 75c | 205.43$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.46 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 72c | 198.91$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.12 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 65c | 164.1$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.13 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 25c | 146.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.98 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 79c | 142.08$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.17 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 141.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 20c | 120.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.35 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 76c | 109.78$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.95 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…dc27backed Yes | 25c | 104.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.2 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.41per pick | 26cpaid | +210%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x503a…1e89backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +63%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 22c | 99.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.99 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 73c | 99.96$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.97 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 33c | 92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.78 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 70c | 88.58$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.41 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 25c | 86.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.12 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 25c | 79.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.12 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 26c | 77.8$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.23 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 76.19$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3f…cd87backed Yes | 19c | 73.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.68 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09bc…f52abacked Yes | 19c | 68.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.85 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 77c | 59.75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.82 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6011…b31ebacked Yes | 58c | 56.26$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 162 | 95.7%155 W · 7 L | +61.2wins | +0.38per pick | 58cpaid | +97.3%equal weight | 86+0.33 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf48b…136fbacked No | 77c | 46.57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 75cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 24c | 46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b06…ff87backed Yes | 23c | 45.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 27c | 45.7$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.4 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 53c | 42.56$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 74c | 41.56$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.77 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 77c | 39.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.72 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 79c | 35.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.35 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06f2…8798backed No | 78c | 29.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 165 | 66.1%109 W · 56 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 29.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 45c | 29.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 28.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 77c | 27.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 74c | 27.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 74c | 24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 71c | 22.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.26 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46cc…3097backed No | 76c | 22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.72 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6793…1869backed No | 73c | 21.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.05 | 315 | 64.8%204 W · 111 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 77c | 20.48$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x158f…2bb3backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 76c | 19.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 75c | 19.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 64c | 18.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42aa…7d26backed No | 72c | 18.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 71c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 73c | 17.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 65c | 16.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 87°F or below on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.