Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on July 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x29d596aa62c9ff943dd4f4f1d4bbf25fcca2f3846e075093642160813aeba435
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,988
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,988 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 37c | 449.99$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 348.25$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.68 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 315$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 41c | 307.5$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.28 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 231.77$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.47 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed No | 33c | 210.61$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.57 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 58c | 206.62$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.67 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 55c | 200.79$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.71 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 46c | 179.69$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.89 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed No | 62c | 149.99$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 35c | 144$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f5…2b27backed Yes | 79c | 137.62$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.11 | 314 | 42.4%133 W · 181 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 48c | 131.44$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.55 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 77c | 114$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.37 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 74c | 112.53$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.95 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 58c | 109.78$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.58 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 39c | 108.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 64c | 106.06$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.56 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 48c | 105.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 18c | 99.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.13 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…f6a0backed Yes | 74c | 93.99$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.33 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +5.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 67c | 93.52$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 65c | 92.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.34 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x843e…e477backed No | 60c | 88.9$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 79.67$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 33c | 79.54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.93 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 37c | 79$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 63c | 78.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.63 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 62c | 77.42$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.42 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09bc…f52abacked Yes | 37c | 68.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf87c…cfcbbacked Yes | 55c | 67.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.06 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd503…325fbacked Yes | 38c | 64.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 62$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.94 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11c9…232cbacked Yes | 58c | 60.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 52c | 57.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.83 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 37c | 51.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 44c | 49.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.97 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…726fbacked No | 63c | 47.54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 399 | 56.6%226 W · 173 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 42c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 42c | 45.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.06 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 40c | 43.32$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.33 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 58c | 41.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 66c | 40.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…4a5abacked Yes | 40c | 39.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 52c | 36.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 67c | 35.88$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 60c | 35.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 39c | 35.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e16…7f14backed No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 220 | 64.5%142 W · 78 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 31.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 61c | 31.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 46c | 30.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 59c | 29.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 58c | 28.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 49c | 28.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 39c | 27.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 24.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc97e…09abbacked No | 53c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 161 | 61.5%99 W · 62 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65a5…2aeebacked No | 57c | 22.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.53 | 164 | 53%87 W · 77 L | -12.5wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 67c | 22.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 62c | 20.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.87 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…1a00backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 361 | 50.4%182 W · 179 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 56c | 18.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x580f…e0d5backed Yes | 76c | 17.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 17.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.12 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 62c | 17.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf12d…eeafbacked No | 64c | 16.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 167 | 33.5%56 W · 111 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 62c | 16.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on July 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 87°F or below on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on July 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on July 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on July 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.