NHL · resolved market
Spread: Sabres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4600bf187fb8d36afb8ab7e8e951ad53e8811bb84a57c1b56e518156a6c4bcbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Canadiensof Sabres, Canadiens
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,039
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,039 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xaf35…b5eabacked Sabres | 35c | 6,767$2,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,342.44 | 114 | 45.6%52 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Canadiens | 65c | 3,719$2,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,301.65 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Canadiens | 66c | 1,270$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.8 | 751 | 55.8%419 W · 332 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Sabres | 34c | 792.97$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.38 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Canadiens | 68c | 725.22$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.07 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Canadiens | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Canadiens | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 326 | 50%163 W · 163 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Canadiens | 65c | 471.14$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.9 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…a569backed Canadiens | 67c | 358.21$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.21 | 226 | 55.8%126 W · 100 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Sabres | 32c | 270.81$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.66 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Canadiens | 67c | 223.88$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.88 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Sabres | 32c | 213.75$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Sabres | 32c | 149.02$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.69 | 939 | 53.6%503 W · 436 L | +29.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Canadiens | 67c | 104.59$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Sabres | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 541 | 32.7%177 W · 364 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Canadiens | 67c | 89.55$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa77a…e6f9backed Canadiens | 69c | 82.14$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 151 | 45%68 W · 83 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Canadiens | 67c | 76.12$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Canadiens | 65c | 70.41$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.64 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Canadiens | 67c | 66$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc880…a622backed Sabres | 32c | 59$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Sabres | 34c | 58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 145 | 42.8%62 W · 83 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19ed…6dc8backed Canadiens | 69c | 52.91$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Canadiens | 62c | 49.42$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Canadiens | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Sabres | 31c | 42.44$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x859d…3cecbacked Sabres | 32c | 39.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 107 | 45.8%49 W · 58 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Canadiens | 67c | 31.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…d7e9backed Canadiens | 67c | 31.34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…4d2cbacked Canadiens | 67c | 29.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 134 | 61.2%82 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…0751backed Canadiens | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x778e…ccd1backed Canadiens | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 219 | 51.6%113 W · 106 L | -8.4wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)this page
- Canadiens vs. SabresCanadiens won
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.