NHL · resolved market
Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfb7cd0f37007f1e88a1da06346117a6a1fa4d470f67c0e0b7c2166c29a0f77d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,262
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,536
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,262 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa5aa…1449backed Under | 48c | 22,843$10,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,906.67 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Under | 49c | 9,000$4,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,590 | 510 | 45.5%232 W · 278 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 51c | 6,998$3,569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,569.17 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 52c | 6,476$3,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,367.52 | 868 | 52.4%455 W · 413 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 52c | 6,450$3,354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,354 | 282 | 51.8%146 W · 136 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 52c | 5,097$2,651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,651.24 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed2c…9597backed Over | 53c | 4,000$2,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,120 | 333 | 45.6%152 W · 181 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 51c | 2,443$1,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,245.97 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9405…c071backed Over | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 47c | 1,500$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$795 | 360 | 38.6%139 W · 221 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 47c | 1,200$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6036…d2ccbacked Under | 49c | 613$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.63 | 470 | 51.5%242 W · 228 L | +12.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 51c | 444.09$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.49 | 530 | 50.6%268 W · 262 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 52c | 361.42$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.94 | 308 | 55.5%171 W · 137 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Under | 64c | 299.99$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 702 | 49%344 W · 358 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 33c | 261.38$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.26 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 36c | 204.55$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.64 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 52c | 199.99$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103 | 226 | 55.3%125 W · 101 L | +17.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3008…50d9backed Under | 66c | 187$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.67 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 71c | 170.85$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.92 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x27d2…b0f8backed Over | 51c | 156.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 51c | 130$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.56 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Over | 51c | 117.34$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 262 | 43.5%114 W · 148 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 48c | 103.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.62 | 916 | 53.9%494 W · 422 L | +39.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Over | 52c | 100.73$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.38 | 252 | 58.3%147 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5960…d692backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 457 | 56.2%257 W · 200 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Under | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 153 | 49%75 W · 78 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 40c | 88.51$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.41 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 50c | 72.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.23 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Over | 36c | 69.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d15…2d65backed Under | 74c | 67.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 74cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba87…bc76backed Under | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 67c | 58.6$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.34 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb53…c50bbacked Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 152 | 36.2%55 W · 97 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe23…bc08backed Over | 35c | 56.94$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 26c | 56.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 353 | 49.6%175 W · 178 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Under | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 50c | 39.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 201 | 45.8%92 W · 109 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Over | 52c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 793 | 50.1%397 W · 396 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Over | 52c | 21.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c7…ffd7backed Under | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.18per pick | 70cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfacd…d470backed Over | 51c | 20.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d21…8648backed Under | 50c | 20.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10c5…5ec9backed Over | 52c | 19.95$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.18per pick | 52cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 62c | 17.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Canadiens vs. Sabres: O/U 6.5this page
- Canadiens vs. SabresCanadiens won
- Spread: Sabres (-1.5)Canadiens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.