Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Santa Clara County?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x460418ad9f25bef4d5f1852a521e8ad6a94c8f40dd2f233831c1697364907351
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,027
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x048a…9be4backed Yes | 59c | 600$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.12 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed No | 32c | 408.33$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.12 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13a9…e573backed No | 30c | 299.65$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.15 | 41 | 19.5%8 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 41c | 242.8$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.55 | 335 | 21.8%73 W · 262 L | -24.0wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 12c | 196.51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 40c | 186.4$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.56 | 81 | 32.1%26 W · 55 L | -8.8wins | -0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 33c | 115.04$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.34 | 95 | 42.1%40 W · 55 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 30c | 106.77$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…3e9ebacked Yes | 67c | 97.37$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 36c | 89$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 77.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 450 | 35.1%158 W · 292 L | -37.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 19c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 110 | 48.2%53 W · 57 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7921…cab1backed Yes | 68c | 55.8$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae17…fa7bbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbb…ad2ebacked Yes | 35c | 48.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1439…1343backed No | 34c | 36.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3455…0262backed Yes | 66c | 34.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed No | 40c | 31.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…bbf5backed Yes | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed Yes | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 72cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…3ff9backed Yes | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551e…87e1backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 67c | 17.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.84 | 341 | 29.3%100 W · 241 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked Yes | 68c | 15.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 68c | 15.37$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Santa Clara County?this page
- Will Matt Mahan finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Santa Clara County?No won
- Will Tom Steyer finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election in Santa Clara County?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.