Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-02-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x460c4c17354897ffc5660aea12e989fb64c3524bdfcc79f026dddc0e43f87bb5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,761
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Yes | 12c | 11,572$1,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,386.17 | 116 | 30.2%35 W · 81 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 80c | 7,523$6,014 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,508.75 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 79c | 3,836$3,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.75 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1353…c7fdbacked Yes | 42c | 2,368$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 57c | 1,261$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.05 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Yes | 43c | 1,200$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…00f5backed Yes | 14c | 1,123$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.05 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +46%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes | 43c | 999.94$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.98 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed No | 56c | 800$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd785…0d7ebacked Yes | 16c | 645.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 9c | 600$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 45c | 535.61$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.99 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ff…8f70backed Yes | 29c | 427.73$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb44b…44e2backed Yes | 8c | 368.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 79c | 311.31$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.51 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 11c | 263.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x466f…bb3bbacked Yes | 8c | 253.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc514…e9b4backed Yes | 9c | 222$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 107 | 28%30 W · 77 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…3c7dbacked Yes | 32c | 221.91$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 204 | 36.3%74 W · 130 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3f…959bbacked Yes | 46c | 218.96$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.72 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 636 | 45.1%287 W · 349 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 22c | 189.05$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f97…a9b3backed Yes | 23c | 173.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…4d6ebacked Yes | 18c | 163.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed No | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -7.1wins | -0.12per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a0…35cdbacked Yes | 16c | 157$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.12 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Yes | 43c | 133.73$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.84 | 168 | 50%84 W · 84 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9140…a914backed Yes | 39c | 125.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +82.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed No | 61c | 122.5$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.78 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04c0…0927backed Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2608…34c1backed Yes | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 10c | 97.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ded…c5c5backed Yes | 35c | 84.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked No | 62c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -61.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 42c | 74.5$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 14c | 72.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 43c | 71.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44b8…a2d7backed Yes | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 205 | 40%82 W · 123 L | -8.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 45c | 68.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Yes | 44c | 63.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94f8…3ec6backed Yes | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Yes | 28c | 54.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaa…eb5cbacked Yes | 31c | 54.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…1077backed Yes | 45c | 54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 73 | 41.1%30 W · 43 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ea…52dbbacked Yes | 45c | 53.49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 67c | 51.41$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed No | 56c | 47.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.94 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 43c | 41.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.9 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ae…106cbacked No | 57c | 37.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ec…27c4backed No | 58c | 34.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed No | 60c | 34.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce6…de1fbacked Yes | 40c | 32.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x72bc…b24ebacked Yes | 40c | 28.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 56c | 27.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25e6…dd3bbacked Yes | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 41cpaid | +34%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 59c | 18.12$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 64 | 70.3%45 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 66c | 15.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SV Darmstadt 98 win on 2026-02-14?this page
- Will Eintracht Braunschweig vs. SV Darmstadt 98 end in a draw?Yes won
- Will Eintracht Braunschweig win on 2026-02-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.