Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4612fc9bb5eb16016a93315b39099a689f2c25ec698e3c24b47142451707ce6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,160
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 58c | 898.65$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.98 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 44c | 463.7$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.79 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 63c | 410$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.92 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x634d…4d02backed Yes | 54c | 341.52$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.27 | 127 | 47.2%60 W · 67 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 42c | 217.14$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.25 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 46c | 206$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.52 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 46c | 194.65$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.97 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 36c | 184.87$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.8 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 24c | 173.67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.7 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 42c | 166.58$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.62 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…2013backed Yes | 51c | 162.12$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.68 | 314 | 54.1%170 W · 144 L | +31.3wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 39c | 155.35$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 56c | 145$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.45 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 141.59$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.64 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 60c | 136.38$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.73 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35fd…4d53backed Yes | 76c | 132.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 44c | 127$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.2 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 43c | 125.59$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.15 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 55c | 121.36$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 59c | 121.2$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.04 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 44c | 120.55$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.8 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 42c | 100$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 44c | 96.54$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.36 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked Yes | 57c | 89.32$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 57c | 86.21$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 69c | 83.41$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.72 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc39d…adafbacked Yes | 60c | 80.35$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.21 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f9…2ce9backed No | 45c | 77$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.49 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb50e…efe5backed No | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 57c | 72.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.49 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 42c | 63.93$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 35c | 60.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.61 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 51c | 60.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 36c | 56.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4f…aff0backed Yes | 63c | 52.11$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 59c | 51.51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 46c | 47.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.93 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 36c | 47.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 55c | 46.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 39c | 45.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.82 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f0…1731backed Yes | 58c | 44.39$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 33c | 41.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked Yes | 78c | 40.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked No | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c0…eb75backed No | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 46 | 56.5%26 W · 20 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 39c | 39.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 36c | 38.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 41c | 37.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 39c | 37$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 43c | 35.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a09…9b7fbacked No | 33c | 32.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 158 | 50.6%80 W · 78 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 50c | 32.5$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1db5…ef2fbacked Yes | 60c | 30.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.47 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed Yes | 63c | 30.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 55c | 27.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 41c | 26.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 42c | 25.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f7…ded2backed Yes | 58c | 25.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 58c | 23.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 60c | 23.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…167ebacked Yes | 57c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfca6…6595backed Yes | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.5wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e77…54cfbacked Yes | 69c | 15.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 319 | 43.3%138 W · 181 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033e…76aebacked Yes | 80c | 14.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 70c | 14.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 98-99°F on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.