MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46300c00cf8f2b5ef67f084f2df30b2887824170581a636e79de0a3d58869adc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Miami Marlins, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,762
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 4,118$2,536 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,582.04 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Miami Marlins | 38c | 3,804$1,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,455.48 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 3,286$1,243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,243.1 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 2,479$1,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$915.36 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 1,410$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.73 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Miami Marlins | 32c | 1,295$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.39 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 797.42$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.09 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 732.28$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.27 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 694.29$437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.25 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 645.08$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.13 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ed…8bb4backed Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 320.2$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.88 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 274.41$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.05 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 250.7$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.76 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 208.15$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.99 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 198.43$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Miami Marlins | 37c | 192.38$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.27 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 66c | 178.5$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 155.37$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.05 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 144.39$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.39 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d14…ff3ebacked Miami Marlins | 37c | 130.03$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 118.42$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.82 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Miami Marlins | 41c | 106.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.64 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 102.9$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 238 | 51.3%122 W · 116 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 125 | 52%65 W · 60 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 98.43$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.42 | 736 | 53%390 W · 346 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 68c | 67.17$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Miami Marlins | 41c | 64.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4fc…e772backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 64.37$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Miami Marlins | 42c | 63.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.54 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Miami Marlins | 41c | 62.86$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Miami Marlins | 41c | 62.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02e7…2519backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 62.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 62.08$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Miami Marlins | 39c | 54.32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 49.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 40.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 40.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Miami Marlins | 30c | 40.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 34.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d5…dd7bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 32.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 31.35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 377 | 47.2%178 W · 199 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd05…61d6backed Miami Marlins | 38c | 30.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.41 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 28.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 20.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe777…c734backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 17.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07d0…1310backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 16.57$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 16.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami MarlinsCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.