MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4152c99471fa00f90c56d4addc1936f8c7d5255d8411e1d1c4b16112c2ba7fdd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,414
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,414 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Over | 46c | 12,331$5,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,672.05 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 54c | 9,727$5,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,489.93 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Over | 47c | 4,755$2,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,234.64 | 272 | 54.4%148 W · 124 L | +12.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 57c | 4,000$2,280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,280 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 43c | 3,862$1,661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,201.38 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Under | 53c | 3,000$1,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,410 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Over | 47c | 2,905$1,365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,365.16 | 246 | 51.6%127 W · 119 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 54c | 2,808$1,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,302.85 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Under | 54c | 2,000$1,070 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$930 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 18c | 1,911$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.62 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Under | 52c | 1,758$914 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.63 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7c…7a19backed Over | 48c | 968.8$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.02 | 117 | 49.6%58 W · 59 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Under | 54c | 848.81$458 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.45 | 366 | 49.2%180 W · 186 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 54c | 805.85$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.69 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Under | 72c | 683.8$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.23 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.13per pick | 59cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Over | 45c | 623.15$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.42 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 48c | 504.58$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.2 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 8c | 377.26$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 54c | 359.79$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.5 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Over | 48c | 334.78$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.69 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 79c | 332.51$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.88 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Under | 54c | 222.6$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.85 | 218 | 47.7%104 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1c…0be3backed Over | 48c | 204.86$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.33 | 61 | 45.9%28 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fe…6a33backed Over | 48c | 201.83$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.88 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 46c | 199.95$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.98 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1602…d7afbacked Over | 46c | 161.47$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d0…1310backed Over | 46c | 119.19$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.83 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 54c | 113.47$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.52 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f90…4e02backed Over | 45c | 106.54$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 52c | 105.25$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.5 | 678 | 49.3%334 W · 344 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Under | 54c | 97.24$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 48c | 96.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 46c | 92.82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked Under | 79c | 64.81$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 452 | 46.2%209 W · 243 L | -18.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed Under | 79c | 64.81$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 286 | 46.2%132 W · 154 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd754…7857backed Over | 36c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 40c | 55.37$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Under | 53c | 53.45$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 153 | 51.6%79 W · 74 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed Under | 53c | 53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 130 | 54.6%71 W · 59 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 54c | 49.64$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.83 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 50c | 49.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 74c | 48.44$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 194 | 52.6%102 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed Under | 74c | 47.89$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 271 | 46.9%127 W · 144 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 74c | 47.89$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 75c | 47.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 393 | 51.9%204 W · 189 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked Under | 75c | 47.77$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 243 | 48.1%117 W · 126 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3565…0b17backed Under | 53c | 45.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ccb…604ebacked Under | 54c | 45.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 21 | 81%17 W · 4 L | +4.7wins | +0.22per pick | 59cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed Under | 54c | 42.97$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 186 | 49.5%92 W · 94 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Under | 54c | 37.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.46 | 261 | 51%133 W · 128 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 46c | 37.74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Under | 71c | 37.04$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 254 | 52%132 W · 122 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed Over | 46c | 36.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 68c | 35.72$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 344 | 52.6%181 W · 163 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 55c | 35.38$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.92 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x792a…7364backed Over | 46c | 31.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -7.2wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4de2…60acbacked Under | 54c | 29.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x290e…0783backed Under | 53c | 27.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +83.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc51c…a913backed Under | 54c | 25.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa76d…6a8ebacked Over | 46c | 25.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 55c | 23.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 55c | 23.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 55c | 23.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85ad…d3fbbacked Under | 55c | 23.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…29e6backed Under | 55c | 23.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 183 | 53.6%98 W · 85 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked Under | 55c | 23.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 183 | 45.4%83 W · 100 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -16%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…73b2backed Under | 55c | 23.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 314 | 46.8%147 W · 167 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked Under | 55c | 23.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x231f…254bbacked Under | 55c | 23.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed Under | 55c | 23.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 238 | 51.3%122 W · 116 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 55c | 23.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked Under | 55c | 23.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 294 | 50.7%149 W · 145 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe02…5fb3backed Under | 55c | 23.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed Under | 55c | 23.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 157 | 53.5%84 W · 73 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed Under | 55c | 23.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…96b9backed Under | 54c | 23.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6dc…a2ecbacked Under | 65c | 22.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…10d9backed Under | 56c | 19.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 355 | 47.3%168 W · 187 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami MarlinsCincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.