MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9ef24f6e8987f9e878f5226b1e98a059090ed2b5e9ad93bfca20734fc735ae9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Cincinnati Reds, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,131
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,290
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,131 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 1,179$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.27 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Cincinnati Reds | 34c | 913.63$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.16 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 74c | 770.38$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.33 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cincinnati Reds | 77c | 498.03$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.55 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87fa…12d0backed Miami Marlins | 67c | 438.89$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.06 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 33c | 395$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.65 | 120 | 37.5%45 W · 75 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1f1…3fd9backed Miami Marlins | 67c | 292.6$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.04 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Miami Marlins | 66c | 250.69$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.46 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Miami Marlins | 31c | 233.33$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.34 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 35c | 192.14$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.85 | 341 | 45.2%154 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 190.12$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.75 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cincinnati Reds | 79c | 185.98$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.82 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Miami Marlins | 67c | 183.14$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.72 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 64c | 157.52$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.71 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Miami Marlins | 10c | 132.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Miami Marlins | 67c | 109.93$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.31 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…2561backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 100$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Miami Marlins | 21c | 92.17$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 33c | 75.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.81 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Cincinnati Reds | 79c | 73.91$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 163 | 51.5%84 W · 79 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Miami Marlins | 26c | 70.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Miami Marlins | 67c | 66.49$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Miami Marlins | 64c | 59.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 650 | 50.3%327 W · 323 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Cincinnati Reds | 33c | 40.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 736 | 53%390 W · 346 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc8…3296backed Cincinnati Reds | 32c | 38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 47cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed Miami Marlins | 68c | 37.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.34 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Cincinnati Reds | 34c | 30.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 667 | 49.3%329 W · 338 L | -22.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb24b…04ddbacked Miami Marlins | 64c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Miami Marlins | 67c | 28.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 945 | 49%463 W · 482 L | -38.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Miami Marlins | 65c | 28.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.57 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Cincinnati Reds | 53c | 23.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.19 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 21.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac5…f963backed Cincinnati Reds | 65c | 21.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Cincinnati Reds | 74c | 15.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami MarlinsCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.