Ligue 1 · resolved market
Le Havre AC vs. FC Metz: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x464cce0365fd47bd6224d65b8abd2d989fabe9972102c92b8fb1ac63d35d6b7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,149
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,686
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,149 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 31c | 3,686$1,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,130.26 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9da0…523cbacked Over | 74c | 3,676$2,713 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d0…8814backed Over | 52c | 1,755$913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.42 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +68.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 41c | 1,720$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$713.61 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Under | 37c | 791.85$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.03 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 40c | 654.94$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.86 | 296 | 37.5%111 W · 185 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 73c | 499.59$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.89 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Over | 53c | 399.98$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.99 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 42c | 398.34$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.21 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 58c | 345.77$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.32 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1430…a753backed Over | 20c | 238.89$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.9 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 25c | 174.93$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.2 | 266 | 60.5%161 W · 105 L | +25.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 47c | 163.79$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.98 | 260 | 46.2%120 W · 140 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed Over | 66c | 148.36$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.44 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Over | 66c | 147.71$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.47 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a6…6ea4backed Under | 34c | 141.95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.01 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeaa…e7efbacked Under | 70c | 140.29$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.2 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 69cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 50c | 113.49$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.8 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 80c | 104.79$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…7590backed Under | 38c | 100.96$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x415c…d51ebacked Under | 19c | 99.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1262…2fc9backed Over | 71c | 95.66$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.18 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +57.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Under | 69c | 74.59$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.46 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -5.5wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x36f3…5c66backed Under | 25c | 60.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Under | 48c | 60.55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +19%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 20c | 52.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ef…9fadbacked Over | 60c | 48.82$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.53 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 47c | 36.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Over | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 71c | 22.76$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 103 | 64.1%66 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Under | 67c | 14.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Le Havre AC vs. FC Metz: O/U 4.5this page
- Le Havre AC vs. FC Metz: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Le Havre AC vs. FC Metz: O/U 1.5Over won
- Le Havre AC vs. FC Metz: O/U 2.5Over won
- Le Havre AC vs. FC Metz: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Le Havre AC (-1.5)FC Metz won
- Spread: Le Havre AC (-2.5)FC Metz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.