Ligue 1 · resolved market
Spread: Le Havre AC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd4b65bc307ea49ac187fcc4045e02d8016d3c9cbae1de0e8747aa7df78b53526
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Metzof Le Havre AC, FC Metz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,865
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Le Havre AC | 44c | 2,525$1,121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,120.67 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked FC Metz | 50c | 1,454$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$727.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Le Havre AC | 36c | 1,304$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.3 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed FC Metz | 64c | 1,280$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.67 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Le Havre AC | 36c | 801.33$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.48 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed FC Metz | 64c | 558.72$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.14 | 304 | 48%146 W · 158 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Le Havre AC | 27c | 548.86$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.35 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed FC Metz | 73c | 193.16$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.63 | 260 | 46.2%120 W · 140 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed FC Metz | 53c | 189.47$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.56 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked FC Metz | 64c | 142.59$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.03 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed FC Metz | 65c | 133.95$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 112 | 50.9%57 W · 55 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee7…f36ebacked FC Metz | 80c | 123.5$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Le Havre AC | 31c | 110.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked FC Metz | 64c | 58.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.16 | 263 | 54%142 W · 121 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Le Havre AC | 36c | 53.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.39 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Le Havre AC | 36c | 53.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d12…a4c4backed Le Havre AC | 59c | 41.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Le Havre AC | 49c | 39$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.11 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed FC Metz | 51c | 38.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc99c…62aebacked FC Metz | 64c | 38.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8a…1f78backed FC Metz | 65c | 36.47$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Le Havre AC | 41c | 36.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +51.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked Le Havre AC | 35c | 35.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Le Havre AC | 36c | 32.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Le Havre AC | 36c | 32.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 78 | 61.5%48 W · 30 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed FC Metz | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed FC Metz | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed FC Metz | 64c | 29.9$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 452 | 33.6%152 W · 300 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Le Havre AC | 39c | 29.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -6.1wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed FC Metz | 61c | 28.85$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Le Havre AC | 54c | 28.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed FC Metz | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Le Havre AC | 45c | 24.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ec…a2f9backed FC Metz | 65c | 19.58$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…6e9bbacked FC Metz | 68c | 17.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Le Havre AC (-1.5)this page
- Le Havre AC vs. FC Metz: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Le Havre AC vs. FC Metz: O/U 1.5Over won
- Le Havre AC vs. FC Metz: O/U 2.5Over won
- Le Havre AC vs. FC Metz: O/U 3.5Over won
- Le Havre AC vs. FC Metz: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Le Havre AC (-2.5)FC Metz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.