Ligue 1 · resolved market
Le Havre AC vs. FC Metz: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x07ba38704f2c68266fb5ca0b3d8f74882b9ccd3a98f33ada61d3ca65fc4f217f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,082
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,082 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b75…433bbacked Over | 32c | 1,799$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.98 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 67c | 850.2$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.94 | 263 | 54%142 W · 121 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 68c | 838.91$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570.46 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 68c | 832$566 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.76 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc68a…07f0backed Under | 65c | 692.83$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 75c | 568.19$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.63 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Under | 13c | 457$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.79 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 35c | 400$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 304 | 48%146 W · 158 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 35c | 307.69$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 32c | 287.76$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.68 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 44c | 253.67$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.14 | 296 | 37.5%111 W · 185 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce7f…de96backed Under | 71c | 163.19$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.87 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 69c | 161.29$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.29 | 211 | 43.1%91 W · 120 L | -7.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Over | 31c | 154.61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.68 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 45c | 139.24$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.01 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 43c | 111.65$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 266 | 60.5%161 W · 105 L | +25.2wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 46c | 93$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.22 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Under | 25c | 78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked Under | 64c | 60.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 57c | 46.72$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.29 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 70c | 46.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 69c | 38.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 486 | 49%238 W · 248 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Under | 54c | 32.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x491c…b765backed Under | 70c | 19.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Le Havre AC vs. FC Metz: O/U 3.5this page
- Le Havre AC vs. FC Metz: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Le Havre AC vs. FC Metz: O/U 1.5Over won
- Le Havre AC vs. FC Metz: O/U 2.5Over won
- Le Havre AC vs. FC Metz: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Le Havre AC (-1.5)FC Metz won
- Spread: Le Havre AC (-2.5)FC Metz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.