Ligue 1 · resolved market
Le Havre AC vs. FC Metz: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0ee19ea5ea2defa43a563dbc9331551386b6e07b87700f008a7b0be510c4ab7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,714
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,693
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,714 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee19…555ebacked Under | 44c | 5,000$2,220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,220 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Under | 48c | 4,148$1,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,991.16 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e01…0875backed Over | 53c | 3,300$1,749 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,551.21 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5af4…183cbacked Over | 56c | 2,947$1,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,296.6 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 59cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3673…2d13backed Over | 60c | 2,596$1,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,048.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 52c | 2,375$1,235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140.07 | 296 | 37.5%111 W · 185 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed Over | 55c | 1,971$1,084 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$887.6 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +39.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b75…433bbacked Over | 53c | 1,636$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$760.9 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d2…d196backed Over | 52c | 1,147$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.76 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +21%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 47c | 1,046$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.09 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28dc…a1f2backed Under | 48c | 968.8$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$465.02 | 37 | 37.8%14 W · 23 L | -6.2wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 42c | 953.08$399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.24 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 44c | 947.16$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.2 | 263 | 54%142 W · 121 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9544…790dbacked Under | 47c | 810$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.7 | 109 | 42.2%46 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 49c | 499.97$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.98 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 42c | 455.56$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.57 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 46c | 402.31$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.11 | 304 | 48%146 W · 158 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47fb…0c7bbacked Under | 51c | 279.32$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.45 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Under | 51c | 199.98$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee43…ae9dbacked Under | 48c | 191.74$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.04 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 60cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 41c | 188$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.07 | 452 | 33.6%152 W · 300 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 6c | 172.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 260 | 46.2%120 W · 140 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Under | 49c | 168.14$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.39 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 43c | 145$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.35 | 78 | 53.8%42 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 40c | 109.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 40c | 109.58$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.36 | 78 | 61.5%48 W · 30 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 42c | 103.47$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.33 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 43c | 102.51$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.71 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Over | 52c | 98.9$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.47 | 102 | 48%49 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02bc…1fd2backed Under | 48c | 86.36$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.45 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 40c | 84.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Over | 53c | 74.91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.57 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Under | 48c | 70.64$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 47c | 63.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.08 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 41c | 60.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.61 | 123 | 67.5%83 W · 40 L | +11.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 49c | 59.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 76 | 48.7%37 W · 39 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 40c | 56.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 103 | 64.1%66 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7af…1802backed Under | 49c | 52.17$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7bb…2753backed Under | 48c | 50.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc46e…9ed8backed Over | 49c | 49.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 39cpaid | +64.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Under | 51c | 46.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 60c | 40.67$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 92 | 62%57 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…a2dabacked Under | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02d…16cabacked Under | 48c | 40.37$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd173…bfaebacked Under | 47c | 39.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Over | 52c | 37.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.93 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 49c | 37.07$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.91 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x659f…04e4backed Under | 40c | 36.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -31%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfd…aadebacked Under | 40c | 36.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.17per pick | 56cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b35…7e1dbacked Under | 48c | 35.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -29%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e3…99a1backed Over | 49c | 34.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 40c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfcf…6c9bbacked Under | 48c | 32.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 40c | 32.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 129 | 63.6%82 W · 47 L | +12.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed Under | 40c | 32.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +4.9wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 40c | 32.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Over | 53c | 30.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf693…8064backed Over | 50c | 29.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 49c | 22.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d78…e218backed Over | 50c | 21.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f01dbacked Over | 50c | 21.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Under | 48c | 21.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7f57…770ebacked Under | 49c | 20.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked Over | 60c | 20.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 30 | 86.7%26 W · 4 L | +9.2wins | +0.31per pick | 56cpaid | +62.6%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 52c | 19.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 162 | 24.1%39 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Le Havre AC vs. FC Metz: O/U 2.5this page
- Le Havre AC vs. FC Metz: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Le Havre AC vs. FC Metz: O/U 1.5Over won
- Le Havre AC vs. FC Metz: O/U 3.5Over won
- Le Havre AC vs. FC Metz: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Le Havre AC (-1.5)FC Metz won
- Spread: Le Havre AC (-2.5)FC Metz won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.