NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4652f5353fdfca690605101e2ff42b8820d227779664699aef89deb96c274eb4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Magic, Trail Blazers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,745
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,790
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,745 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Magic | 47c | 5,387$2,537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,850.74 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 4,256$2,247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,247.17 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Magic | 52c | 2,072$1,085 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$986.69 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 1,574$740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$739.94 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc87b…51d4backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 1,046$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.11 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 999.67$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.45 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Magic | 47c | 739.86$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.13 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Magic | 60c | 513.38$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.41 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6941…efd5backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 403.7$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -7.1wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Magic | 46c | 338.13$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.59 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Magic | 46c | 331$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.74 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1802…d00fbacked Trail Blazers | 25c | 300$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 162 | 43.8%71 W · 91 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Magic | 43c | 273.16$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.7 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c1…18c7backed Trail Blazers | 57c | 263.16$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 140 | 42.9%60 W · 80 L | -9.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Magic | 46c | 237.06$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.01 | 762 | 47.1%359 W · 403 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 161.85$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.78 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Magic | 48c | 120$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x315c…593bbacked Trail Blazers | 49c | 102.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc079…8881backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…1b66backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 72.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.15 | 189 | 54.5%103 W · 86 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Magic | 50c | 71.48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Magic | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 760 | 54.6%415 W · 345 L | +56.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Magic | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f84…f7ffbacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Magic | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 455 | 42.4%193 W · 262 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Trail Blazers | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…01a4backed Trail Blazers | 54c | 33.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 146 | 54.8%80 W · 66 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Magic | 48c | 27$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Trail Blazers | 47c | 23.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 302 | 44%133 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Trail Blazers | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-2.5)this page
- Desmond Bane: Assists Over 4.5Yes won
- Magic vs. Trail BlazersMagic won
- Magic vs. Trail Blazers: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Magic vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Magic vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 231.5Under won
- Magic vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 232.5Under won
- Magic vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 233.5Under won
- Magic vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Magic (-1.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.