NBA · resolved market
Magic vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc165052eaf01fe956c21707aa256fe08bcd3e9af4e5dc2520dc9c2988eaedeeb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,625
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,625 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf42…d698backed Under | 54c | 80,000$43,199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36,800.96 | 170 | 31.8%54 W · 116 L | -24.9wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 46c | 21,302$9,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,799 | 1,212 | 48.3%586 W · 626 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 46c | 15,000$6,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,900 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Over | 46c | 10,551$4,853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,853.28 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 46c | 7,986$3,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,673.56 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 47c | 6,431$3,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,004.88 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Over | 46c | 5,086$2,339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,339.41 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed Over | 46c | 3,000$1,380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,380 | 191 | 47.6%91 W · 100 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee20…5b37backed Over | 46c | 2,174$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.99 | 503 | 47.9%241 W · 262 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 47c | 1,945$916 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.33 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Over | 46c | 1,549$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.56 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 46c | 1,325$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.5 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…c066backed Over | 46c | 1,085$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499 | 94 | 50%47 W · 47 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 1,006$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.88 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 52c | 891.87$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.1 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed Under | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 267 | 55.8%149 W · 118 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 46c | 788.5$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.55 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 13c | 489.39$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.88 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x964c…0a17backed Over | 51c | 393.06$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 72 | 37.5%27 W · 45 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 46c | 308.04$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.7 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc316…778dbacked Over | 48c | 300$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf531…b062backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 548 | 38%208 W · 340 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 368 | 54.1%199 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Under | 50c | 196$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 453 | 48.1%218 W · 235 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92cf…8b35backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,110 | 52%577 W · 533 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc954…642fbacked Over | 49c | 180$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.2 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0f…09debacked Over | 46c | 106.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 154 | 40.3%62 W · 92 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…fcf3backed Over | 50c | 102$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 124 | 54%67 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a20…af22backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | -5.2wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 634 | 27.3%173 W · 461 L | -19.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42bf…30f7backed Under | 51c | 62.96$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.85 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x231d…6d97backed Under | 80c | 56.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +75%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a49…f879backed Over | 50c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd207…c366backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 191 | 50.3%96 W · 95 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a9f…c2a6backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e46…25c2backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.1wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91dc…9dcebacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -5.7wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…2108backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 358 | 44.1%158 W · 200 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Magic vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 231.5this page
- Desmond Bane: Assists Over 4.5Yes won
- Magic vs. Trail BlazersMagic won
- Magic vs. Trail Blazers: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Magic vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Magic vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 232.5Under won
- Magic vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 233.5Under won
- Magic vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Magic (-1.5)Magic won
- Spread: Magic (-2.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.