NBA · resolved market
Spread: Magic (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7055097d5bf92db91fcd1d7a866649faac9e41ffbe66e5ba3429f127c963fc7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Magicof Magic, Trail Blazers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,931
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,982
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,931 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Magic | 50c | 3,252$1,640 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,612.65 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Trail Blazers | 48c | 3,055$1,466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,466.36 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Magic | 52c | 2,975$1,547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,427.96 | 715 | 47.7%341 W · 374 L | -26.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba43…388cbacked Magic | 51c | 2,100$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,029 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8d30…c94fbacked Trail Blazers | 49c | 2,100$1,029 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,029 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 1,224$617 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$616.54 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe297…9e1bbacked Trail Blazers | 49c | 1,000$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6de…95e8backed Magic | 50c | 851.74$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.87 | 230 | 47%108 W · 122 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Magic | 52c | 601$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.28 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 588.24$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Magic | 50c | 500$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 457.8$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.74 | 1,294 | 48.1%623 W · 671 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Magic | 51c | 449$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.01 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Magic | 50c | 409$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.5 | 462 | 58.2%269 W · 193 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x891d…dd26backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 409$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.5 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4de8…35b9backed Magic | 51c | 370$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Magic | 50c | 347.41$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.88 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cca…b80bbacked Magic | 51c | 330$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3d…7a56backed Magic | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Trail Blazers | 10c | 267.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 279 | 37.3%104 W · 175 L | +57.6wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +187%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Magic | 52c | 224$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.52 | 2,045 | 48.4%990 W · 1,055 L | -30.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 203.92$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 364 | 50.8%185 W · 179 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41ce…6509backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 203.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.92 | 280 | 46.8%131 W · 149 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…dca3backed Magic | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 150 | 52.7%79 W · 71 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Magic | 48c | 186.08$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.76 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf2d…1100backed Trail Blazers | 52c | 186.08$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.76 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Trail Blazers | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 141 | 27.7%39 W · 102 L | -16.4wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 69.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.49 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45b8…3c28backed Magic | 50c | 64$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Magic | 49c | 60.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 503 | 46.5%234 W · 269 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 56.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Trail Blazers | 27c | 56.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 637 | 45.8%292 W · 345 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Trail Blazers | 49c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 2,902 | 38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L | -51.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef2…6e74backed Trail Blazers | 51c | 41.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -8.2wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Trail Blazers | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x552e…a856backed Magic | 50c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 46 | 50%23 W · 23 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Trail Blazers | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Magic | 48c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 2,630 | 36.7%966 W · 1,664 L | -119.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Trail Blazers | 48c | 27.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Trail Blazers | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd53e…e70cbacked Magic | 57c | 22.07$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a13…271dbacked Magic | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Magic (-1.5)this page
- Desmond Bane: Assists Over 4.5Yes won
- Magic vs. Trail BlazersMagic won
- Magic vs. Trail Blazers: 1H MoneylineMagic won
- Magic vs. Trail Blazers: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Magic vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 231.5Under won
- Magic vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 232.5Under won
- Magic vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 233.5Under won
- Magic vs. Trail Blazers: O/U 234.5Under won
- Spread: Magic (-2.5)Magic won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.