NFL · resolved market
Big Game: First Timeout?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4682fc472fdbd1d94a5938ee1e34417bb947f095e7e8488f3995b0b88469f23e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SEAof NE, SEA
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,600
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe542…0a37backed NE | 1c | 1,471$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 212 | 27.8%59 W · 153 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed SEA | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb75…aaf9backed NE | 51c | 989.68$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed SEA | 45c | 600.85$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.47 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80ac…6ac9backed NE | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked NE | 55c | 168.25$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.54 | 234 | 47.9%112 W · 122 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd950…0e10backed NE | 54c | 111.11$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f59…1866backed SEA | 54c | 110.33$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.33 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7319…c664backed SEA | 46c | 95.58$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4527…b378backed NE | 50c | 81.92$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 24cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83c1…32f7backed NE | 54c | 72.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf8…d384backed NE | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f5b…a891backed NE | 52c | 47.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +45%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed SEA | 46c | 45.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.58 | 567 | 9.9%56 W · 511 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82b9…c6cebacked NE | 55c | 45.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked SEA | 47c | 45.32$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 151 | 45.7%69 W · 82 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b4…fa3dbacked SEA | 49c | 40.58$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed SEA | 46c | 39.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe8b9…8ea2backed NE | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed SEA | 47c | 35.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b0…fd60backed NE | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1b…9816backed SEA | 51c | 29.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +95.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x476c…ce52backed SEA | 49c | 29.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x370b…5f2cbacked SEA | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7fe…1e42backed SEA | 46c | 23.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 54 | 79.6%43 W · 11 L | +8.1wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +26%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf590…b1dcbacked SEA | 49c | 22.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd844…4ea3backed NE | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfeee…0aa1backed NE | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.