MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4690439d6724f86aa231a6c2fc0335a684c7cd6338969c7397d5c3a13dc9d741
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,411
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,411 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 47c | 24,025$11,233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,792.18 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 54c | 5,528$2,998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,997.85 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…8409backed Over | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 260 | 54.2%141 W · 119 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 27c | 2,558$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.66 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Under | 52c | 1,667$867 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.16 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 51c | 1,512$778 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$778.48 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 54c | 1,323$714 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$714.42 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 54c | 1,024$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.96 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8840…f51abacked Over | 2c | 999.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 32 | 0%0 W · 32 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Over | 52c | 980.39$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.8 | 877 | 50.4%442 W · 435 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 53c | 900$477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Over | 52c | 792.29$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$412.22 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 36c | 701$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.49 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Over | 52c | 594.11$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.94 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 22c | 471.1$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.64 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 52c | 403$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.7 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Over | 53c | 287.99$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.19 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 8c | 247$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Over | 25c | 239$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.75 | 231 | 40.3%93 W · 138 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 60c | 231.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 25c | 214.24$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.56 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 53c | 209.2$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.67 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 61c | 202.34$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.12 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 42c | 166.76$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.3 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Over | 50c | 164.69$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.35 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 48c | 155.69$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 49c | 130$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.3 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 53c | 130$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Over | 11c | 123$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked Over | 51c | 120.98$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.7 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 53c | 118.57$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Over | 52c | 114.16$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.49 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 54c | 110$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 61c | 102.68$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.24 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Over | 51c | 101.24$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.1 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Over | 53c | 92.21$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.87 | 291 | 41.6%121 W · 170 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2792…c4f6backed Over | 59c | 82.68$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 739 | 49.8%368 W · 371 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6844…d538backed Over | 26c | 77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 128 | 57%73 W · 55 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 20c | 75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Over | 31c | 70.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd22…430ebacked Under | 48c | 62.52$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Under | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Over | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 476 | 46.2%220 W · 256 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Over | 25c | 49.11$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 556 | 45.3%252 W · 304 L | -17.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 60c | 46.34$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed Over | 64c | 39.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 341 | 39.9%136 W · 205 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9b…7a9fbacked Over | 40c | 31.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 82 | 34.1%28 W · 54 L | -10.4wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Over | 53c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 43c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafaf…1635backed Under | 43c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 529 | 55.6%294 W · 235 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42c7…c415backed Over | 55c | 20.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +5.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.